Outcome probability modulates anticipatory behavior to signals that are equally reliable

Abstract

A stimulus is a reliable signal of an outcome when the probability that the outcome occurs in its presence is different from in its absence. Reliable signals of important outcomes are responsible for triggering critical anticipatory or preparatory behavior, which is any form of behavior that prepares the organism to receive a biologically significant event. Previous research has shown that humans and other animals prepare more for outcomes that occur in the presence of highly reliable (i.e., highly contingent) signals, that is, those for which that difference is larger. However, it seems reasonable to expect that, all other things being equal, the probability with which the outcome follows the signal should also affect preparatory behavior. In the present experiment with humans, we used two signals. They were differentially followed by the outcome, but they were equally (and relatively weakly) reliable. The dependent variable was preparatory behavior in a Martians video game. Participants prepared more for the outcome (a Martians’ invasion) when the outcome was most probable. These results indicate that the probability of the outcome can bias preparatory behavior to occur with different intensities despite identical outcome signaling.

Bending rules: the shape of the perceptual generalisation gradient is sensitive to inference rules

“…In the case of perceptual generalisation, people are assumed to make a judgment about the similarity between GS and CS and to infer from that similarity how likely it is that the GS will be followed by the same outcome as the CS. The rule "the more stimuli look alike, the higher the chance that they will have the same outcome" can explain the typical shape of the perceptual generalisation gradient, because it has been demonstrated that subjects show stronger responding when they believe occurrence of a US to be more likely (Matute, Steegen, & Vadillo, 2014).…”