Overcoming the marine energy pre-profit phase: What classifies the game-changing “array-scale success”?

Bucher, Ralf; Bryden, Ian

doi:10.1016/j.ijome.2015.05.002

Cited by 7 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 16 publications

(16 reference statements)

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“…As a result of the experimentation, a dominant design emerges in the market. Once the dominant design of the technology achieves a series of successful demonstrations, commercial deployments are initiated [37,38]. The Horizontal-Axis Turbine (HAT) design of the tidal stream is at this stage, as it has exhibited increased testing and a series of successful demonstration arrays [21,39,40].…”

Section: Tidal Streammentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Costs of Key Emerging Offshore Renewable Energy Technologies

Santhakumar

Meerman²,

Faaij

2022

SSRN Journal

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Section: Tidal Streammentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Costs of Key Emerging Offshore Renewable Energy Technologies

Santhakumar

Meerman²,

Faaij

2022

SSRN Journal

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“…As years will pass before full maturity is reached, the introduction of a competitive technology qualification routine was proposed for early commercial projects in order to achieve the required safety for investment [38,39]…”

Section: Competitive Technology Qualification Routinementioning

confidence: 99%

Creation of investor confidence: The top-level drivers for reaching maturity in marine energy

et al. 2016

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Electricity generation by tidal current and wave power arrays represents a radical innovation and is confronted by significant technological and financial challenges. Currently, the marine energy sector finds itself in a decisive transition phase having developed full-scale technology demonstrators but still lacking proof of the concept in a commercial project environment. After the decades-long development process with larger than expected setbacks and delays, investors are discouraged because of high capital requirements and the uncertainty of future revenues. In order to de-risk the technology and to accelerate the commercialisation process, we identified stakeholder-wide balanced and realisable strategic targets. The objective is to name the top-level drivers for facilitating technology maturation and thus achieving market acceptance. Our analysis revealed that the two major risks for multi-megawatt projects (funding and device performance) are directly interlinked and that coordinated action is required to overcome this circular relationship. As funding is required for improving device performance (and vice-versa), showcasing an "array-scale success" was identified as the interim milestone on the way towards commercial generation. By this game-changing event, both mentioned risk complexes will be simultaneously mitigated. We observed that system dynamics modelling is appropriate for an unbiased analysis of complex multi-level expert interview data. The applied research model was found to be efficient and allows a regular re-assessment of the strategic alignment thus supporting the adaptation to a complex and continuously changing socio-technical environment.

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“…The lack of technology design convergence also makes the available investment cost estimates highly uncertain for wave technology [93]. Second, a series of demonstration projects with a successful and reliable operational track record is necessary, referred to as "array scale success" [149]. Tidal stream technology has achieved successful operation of demonstration arrays in recent years and is set to enter the early commercialization phase.…”

Section: Wave and Tidal Energy Technologymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…As a result of the experimentation, a dominant design emerges in the market. Once the dominant design of the technology achieves a series of successful demonstrations, commercial deployments are initiated[27,149]. The Horizontal-Axis Turbine (HAT) design of the tidal stream is at this stage, as it has exhibited increased testing and a series of successful demonstration arrays[148,330].…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Learning, future cost and role of offshore renewable energy technologies in the North Sea energy system

Santhakumar

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This article reviews experience curve applications in energy technology studies to illustrate best practices in analyzing technological learning. Findings are then applied to evaluate future performance projections of three emerging offshore energy technologies, namely, offshore wind, wave and tidal stream, and biofuel production from seaweed. Key insights from the review are: First, the experience curve approach provides a strong analytical construct to describe and project technology cost developments. However, disaggregating the influences of individual learning mechanisms on observed cost developments demands extensive data requirements, e.g., R&D expenditures, and component-level cost information, which are often not publicly available/readily accessible. Second, in an experience curve analysis, the LR estimate of the technology is highly sensitive to the changes in model specifications and data assumptions. Future studies should evaluate the impact of these variations and inform the uncertainties associated with using the observed learning rates. Third, the review of the literature relevant to offshore energy technology developments revealed that experience curve studies have commonly applied the single-factor experience curve model to derive technology cost projections. This has led to an overview of the role of distinct learning mechanisms (e.g., learning-by-doing, scale effects), and factors (site-specific parameters) influencing their development. To overcome these limitations, we propose a coherent framework based on the findings of this review. The framework disaggregates the technological development process into multiple stages and maps the expected data availability, characteristics, and methodological options to quantify the learning effects. The evaluation of the framework using three offshore energy technologies signals that the data limitations that restrict the process of disaggregating the learning process and identifying cost drivers can be overcome by utilizing detailed bottom-up engineering cost modeling and technology diffusion curves; with experience curve models.

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Overcoming the marine energy pre-profit phase: What classifies the game-changing “array-scale success”?

Cited by 7 publications

References 16 publications

Future Costs of Key Emerging Offshore Renewable Energy Technologies

Future Costs of Key Emerging Offshore Renewable Energy Technologies

Creation of investor confidence: The top-level drivers for reaching maturity in marine energy

Learning, future cost and role of offshore renewable energy technologies in the North Sea energy system

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