Overconfidence and personal evaluations of social rank

Abstract

Research on confidence judgements suggests that people are often overconfident. However, some studies have found that depressed mood reduces this positive bias. To date this has been explained as a mood phenomenon. In this study we explore an alternative theory which suggests that confidence is related to internal judgements of social rank and status. This theory suggests that the lower one perceives oneself to be in status and rank the less one can afford to be overconfident. Data from a student population suggests that confidence judgements are associated with internal judgements of status.

Trading activity on social trading platforms – a behavioral approach*

“…Dowling and Lucey (2010) show that ambitious settings fostering competition among individuals nurture a biased self-attribution (see also Eshraghi and Taffler, 2012;Simon and Heimer, 2015). The social ranking theory contributes by explaining in which way good performances compared with the social environment nourish the signaler's self-perception and result in higher confidence and risk taking (Gilbert et al, 1996;Baker and Nofsinger, 2002). While several studies argue that the scarcity of information in competitive fields augments overconfidence, the immediate feedback on social trading platforms can reduce biased self-attribution as true abilities are revealed (Jin et al, 2016;Heimer, 2016;Gortner and van der Weele, 2019).…”

The evolved basis and adaptive functions of cognitive distortions

“…There is now clear evidence that mild positive biases and optimism are associated with a variety of health measures including good mood and perseverance (Peterson, Maier & Seligman, 1993;Taylor & Brown 1988. Using evolutionary theory, however, Gilbert, Allan, Ball & Bradshaw (1996) found that confidence was related to the perceptions of social rank rather than mood. This suggests that positive biases may be sensitive to rank evaluations, and that in subsequent studies of confidence social rank estimates should be assessed.…”

Social smerte i det moderne arbejdsliv ud fra et arbejdspsykologisk perspektiv

“…Signaler om accept af social magt, indflydelses og statusrelationer bidrager til opretholdelsen af gruppens integritet og sammenhaengskraft. Denne sammenhaengskraft traekker gruppen på, både når der opstår indre konflikter eller aendringer, og når den håndterer ydre aendringer, krav og trusler (Gilbert, Allan, Ball & Bradshaw, 1996).…”