The effects of the Uruguay Round are quantified using a numerical general equilibrium model which incorporates increasing returns to scale, regions, commodities, and steady state growth effects. We conclude that the aggregate welfare gains from the Round are in the order of $ billion per year in the short run, but could be as high as $ billion per year in the long run after capital stocks have optimally adjusted. Despite these global gains, we identify some developing countries that lose from the Round in the short run. In the long run, almost all gain, and the Round will allow developing countries to gain further through their own unilateral liberalisation.
. - We begin with a presentation of our ' base ' model, which is static CRTS with regions and production sectors in each region, listed in Table . In order to assess the consequences of regional aggregation, for some simulations we also employ a -region aggregation of the base model.Except for tariff data discussed below, the data employed to calibrate the model come primarily from the GTAP database for (Version ) # Royal Economic Society [ " The elasticities of substitution for these value added production functions are taken from Harrison, Rutherford and Wooton ( ; table , p. ), which are unpublished estimates by Harrison, Jones, Kimbell and Wigle () from time-series data for the United Stated between and . Contrary to many of the estimates employed in the CGE literature, the econometric specification used in this case corresponds to the functional form assumed in the model. # The available econometric evidence suggests values which are much lower than these (see Reinert and Roland-Holst () and Shiells and Reinert ()). But elasticities would be expected to increase over time, and this model assesses an adjustment of about years, a rather long period in the context of these econometric estimates. # Royal Economic Society [ ) We report welfare as a percentage of full GDP, where GDP is derived from the GTAP database. In Harrison, Rutherford and Tarr () welfare changes were reported as a percentage of private consumption, and hence were therefore somewhat higher. # Royal Economic Society "! See Yongzheng et al. () and Tarr () for formal derivations of the welfare analysis. "" This is likely an overestimate of LDC quota rent losses from MFA elimination to the extent that it ignores rent dissipation costs in LDCs associated with these quota rents. See Hamilton (), Trela and Whalley ( b) and Tarr () for applied discussions of rent dissipation.