Despite recent improvements in therapy, chronic left heart failure (HF) frequently requires hospitalization or is lethal. [1][2][3] We postulated that management of such patients could be improved by adding more sensitive predictors, further refi ning well-known predictors, or by combining predictors. Currently, in such patients, gas exchange measurements during incremental cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) such as peak oxygen uptake (peak o 2 ) at standard conditions of 0ºC, 760 mm Hg, dry (STPD); anaerobic threshold (AT); peak oxygen pulse; lowest ratio of minute ventilation ( e) at body temperature, ambient atmospheric pressure, saturated with water vapor to minute CO 2 output ( co 2 ) STPD; e -vs-co 2 slope; oscillatory breathing (OB) pattern [3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10] ; and the slope of o 2 to log e (oxygen uptake effi ciency slope [OUES]) [11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21] have been found to be useful in predicting mortality and morbidity and guiding therapy. 3-10 However, the full exercise response pattern of oxygen uptake effi ciency (OUE) ( o 2 / e , mL/L) and specifi cally the measurement of its highest average plateau (OUEP) (mL/L) have not been evaluated.As the CPET core laboratory for two St. Jude Medical multicenter studies 3,22,23
involving 508 patientsBackground: The responses of oxygen uptake effi ciency (ie, oxygen uptake/ventilation 5 O 2 / E ) and its highest plateau (OUEP) during incremental cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) in patients with chronic left heart failure (HF) have not been previously reported. We planned to test the hypothesis that OUEP during CPET is the best single predictor of early death in HF. Methods: We evaluated OUEP, slope of O 2 to log( E) ( oxygen uptake effi ciency slope ) , oscillatory breathing, and all usual resting and CPET measurements in 508 patients with low-ejectionfraction ( , 35%) HF. Each had further evaluations at other sites, including cardiac catheterization. Outcomes were 6-month all-reason mortality and morbidity (death or . 24 h cardiac hospitalization). Statistical analyses included area under curve of receiver operating characteristics, ORs, univariate and multivariate Cox regression, and Kaplan-Meier plots. Results: OUEP, which requires only moderate exercise, was often reduced in patients with HF. A low % predicted OUEP was the single best predictor of mortality ( P , .0001), with an OR of 13.0 ( P , .001). When combined with oscillatory breathing, the OR increased to 56.3, superior to all other resting or exercise parameters or combinations of parameters. Other statistical analyses and morbidity analysis confi rmed those fi ndings. Conclusions: OUEP is often reduced in patients with HF. Low % predicted OUEP ( , 65% predicted) is the single best predictor of early death, better than any other CPET or other cardiovascular measurement. Paired with oscillatory breathing, it is even more powerful.