2020
DOI: 10.1101/2020.04.29.20084707
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Pandemic Lock-down, Isolation, and Exit Policies Based on Machine Learning Predictions

Abstract: Background: In early May 2020, following social distancing measures due to COVID-19, governments consider relaxing lock-down. We combined individual clinical risk predictions with epidemic modelling to examine simulations of riskbased differential isolation and exit policies. Methods:We extended a standard susceptible-exposed-infected-removed (SEIR) model to account for personalised predictions of severity, defined by the risk of an individual needing intensive care if infected, and simulated differential isol… Show more

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Cited by 11 publications
(13 citation statements)
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“…In our approach we use immunity detection procedure for a similar purpose, but less accurate estimates of the risk of each individuals are also available depending on their current and past health characteristics. As discussed in Evgeniou et al (2020), the key ingredient for considering and using a differential lockdown strategy is a proper handling of the risk of bad specification of the group associated to some individuals. A dynamic optimisation over both the dynamic lockdown intervention together with the risk level associated to each misspecification is left for further research.…”
Section: Resultsmentioning
confidence: 99%
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“…In our approach we use immunity detection procedure for a similar purpose, but less accurate estimates of the risk of each individuals are also available depending on their current and past health characteristics. As discussed in Evgeniou et al (2020), the key ingredient for considering and using a differential lockdown strategy is a proper handling of the risk of bad specification of the group associated to some individuals. A dynamic optimisation over both the dynamic lockdown intervention together with the risk level associated to each misspecification is left for further research.…”
Section: Resultsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Berger et al (2020); Roques et al (2020)) or on the evaluation via simulations of exit-strategies (e.g. Domenico et al (2020); Evgeniou et al (2020)). In this paper, we suggest a different approach for evaluating lockdown and exit scenarios based on Optimal Control theory (e.g.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
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“…It used a naïve Bayesian approach, assuming that all the risk variables were independent of one another. An interesting French study modelled individual risk as a potential decision-making aid to relaxing lockdown restrictions on low-risk populations (Evgeniou, et al, 2020). It used standard statistical and machine-learning methods such as logistic regression and random forest.…”
Section: Context and Related Workmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…This approach can be used both for tuning lockdown/exit strategies or for dealing with possible further epidemic waves. We refer to [4] for an investigation of differentiated lockdown strategies in France based on this approach.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%