Parameter Estimation of Seasonal Arima Models for Water Demand Forecasting Using the Harmony Search Algorithm

Oliveira, Paulo José Alves de; Steffen, Jorge Luiz; Cheung, Peter Batista

doi:10.1016/j.proeng.2017.03.225

Cited by 50 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…For simplicity, we used a quasi-compressible approximation with density as an explicit variable. Oliveira [9] introduced the pressure and velocity coupling algorithm in OpenFOAM in detail. Considering the impact of compressibility, the filtered version of the general continuity equation was adopted by us (for simplicity, the bar graph above large variables is not selected): in our case, we used a quasi-compressible approximation, The density is used as an explicit variable.…”

Section: Mathematical Physics Equations and Openfoam Realizationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Considering the impact of compressibility, the filtered version of the general continuity equation was adopted by us (for simplicity, the bar graph above large variables is not selected): in our case, we used a quasi-compressible approximation, The density is used as an explicit variable. Oliveira [9] introduced the pressure and velocity coupling algorithm in OpenFOAM in detail.…”

Section: Mathematical Physics Equations and Openfoam Realizationmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Research on terrain aerodynamics analysis of power grid structure at different temperature

Yang

et al. 2021

E3S Web Conf.

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The distribution of near-surface meteorological elements will be greatly affected by topography and other factors, such as wind, which making the dynamic structure of the micro-topography area passed by the power transmission and transformation equipment more susceptible to micro-topography climate. The single hill is one of the typical topography in the micro-topography. This paper studies the variation of buoyant flow and temperate circulation in a typical long hilly terrain. Integrating factors such as buoyancy, turbulence and micro-topography, the separation vortex simulation technology is adopted to the special conditions of microtopography climate. The effect of different surface temperatures on the wind field of the power grid is described in detail. Experiments in the thesis show that the difference in surface temperature will directly affect the speedup ratio. Compared with the change of air temperature, when the surface temperature is higher, the acceleration effect is less obvious, but when the surface temperature is lower, the acceleration effect is more obvious.

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Section: Mathematical Physics Equations and Openfoam Realizationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Mathematical Physics Equations and Openfoam Realizationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Research on terrain aerodynamics analysis of power grid structure at different temperature

Yang

et al. 2021

E3S Web Conf.

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“…using different statistical estimation techniques such as, ordinary least squares (OLS), generalized method of moments (GMM) and quantile regression (Deyà-Tortella et al 2019;Dikgang et al 2019;Kumar and Ramachandran 2019;Binet et al 2014;Cardoso 2013;Wentz and Gober 2007;Worthington and Hoffman 2008). The three most central aspects of empirical works on water consumption are the identification of water demand covariates, nature of water consumption data (i.e., aggregate or household) and the magnitudes of estimated price and income elasticities (Flyr et al 2019;Oliveira et al 2017;Sebri 2016;Gardner 2010;Bartczak et al 2009;Espey et al 1997;Worthington and Hoffman 2008;Ahmad et al 2016;Nauges and Thomas 2000;Martínez-Espiñeira 2002;Strand and Walker 2005). Despite different aspects of empirical evidence on water consumption in cities, the common procedure involves identification of most important determinants from a pool of covariates and estimates their separate effects using standard statistical estimation techniques mentioned above.…”

Section: Empirical Literature On Water Consumptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Exploring Water Consumption in Dhaka City Using Instrumental Variables Regression Approaches

Siddiquee

Ahamed

2020

Environ. Process.

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This paper explores water consumption in Dhaka city for better understanding of its usage, and considers the implications of findings from distributive rationale. Using 459 household survey data collected by BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD), this study estimates income elasticities of water consumption after controlling the effects of other covariates including wealth-proxies, location, household size, water bill and spatial zones using the instrumental variable regression (IVREG) and instrumental variable quantile regression (IVQREG) approaches. The latter has an additive advantage over the former as the IVQREG provides a more accurate picture of the relationship of water consumption with the income throughout the entire water consumption distribution. Using the fixed pay variable as instrument, findings reveal the strong evidence that income is endogenous. The IVQREG results show that income elasticities are heterogeneous and vary significantly across the water quantiles, implying inequality in water consumption. It also provides strong systematic evidence as income elasticity of water consumption decreases with the increase in percentile. Significant spatial inequality in water consumption from IVREG approach disappears as we use IVQREG. This also strongly supports the systematic evidence obtained. Therefore, it is imperative to introduce different tariff structures among different water consumer groups for bringing equity in water consumption and revenue generation. However, Dhaka Water Supply & Sewerage Authority (DWASA) must ensure smart water meter before implementing such tariff structure as we face severe challenges while measuring residential water consumption.

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“…Romano and Kapelan [8] constructed a valid estimation model with an average error of about 5% using evolutionary algorithms and artificial neural networks. Similarly, Oliveira et al [9] applied the harmonious search algorithm to the short-term water demand estimation and searched the parameters in the model by using the harmony search (HS) algorithm. Swarm intelligence optimization algorithms are research hotspots in the optimization field.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Improved Slime Mould Algorithm for Demand Estimation of Urban Water Resources

2021

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A slime mould algorithm (SMA) is a new meta-heuristic algorithm, which can be widely used in practical engineering problems. In this paper, an improved slime mould algorithm (ESMA) is proposed to estimate the water demand of Nanchang City. Firstly, the opposition-based learning strategy and elite chaotic searching strategy are used to improve the SMA. By comparing the ESMA with other intelligent optimization algorithms in 23 benchmark test functions, it is verified that the ESMA has the advantages of fast convergence, high convergence precision, and strong robustness. Secondly, based on the data of historical water consumption and local economic structure of Nanchang, four estimation models, including linear, exponential, logarithmic, and hybrid, are established. The experiment takes the water consumption of Nanchang City from 2004 to 2019 as an example to analyze, and the estimation models are optimized using the ESMA to determine the model parameters, then the estimation models are tested. The simulation results show that all four models can obtain better prediction accuracy, and the proposed ESMA has the best effect on the hybrid prediction model, and the prediction accuracy is up to 97.705%. Finally, the water consumption of Nanchang in 2020–2024 is forecasted.

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Parameter Estimation of Seasonal Arima Models for Water Demand Forecasting Using the Harmony Search Algorithm

Cited by 50 publications

References 8 publications

Research on terrain aerodynamics analysis of power grid structure at different temperature

Research on terrain aerodynamics analysis of power grid structure at different temperature

Exploring Water Consumption in Dhaka City Using Instrumental Variables Regression Approaches

An Improved Slime Mould Algorithm for Demand Estimation of Urban Water Resources

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