Parameterization of lake thermodynamics in a high-resolution weather
                        forecasting model

Ljungemyr, Patrik; Gustafsson, Nils; Omstedt, Anders

doi:10.3402/tellusa.v48i5.12155

Cited by 31 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…RCA3 is a RCM that contains a full description of the atmosphere and its interaction with the land surface. It includes a land surface model (Samuelsson et al, 2006) and a lake model, PROBE (Ljungemyr et al, 1996). Sea‐surface temperature (SST) and sea‐ice conditions are prescribed for all ocean areas within the chosen model domain including the Baltic Sea for the present set‐up.…”

Section: Model and Experimentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

21st century changes in the European climate: uncertainties derived from an ensemble of regional climate model simulations

Kjellström¹,

Nikulin²,

Hansson³

et al. 2011

Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography

309

186

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A B S T R A C T Seasonal mean temperature, precipitation and wind speed over Europe are analysed in an ensemble of 16 regional climate model (RCM) simulations for 1961-2100. The RCM takes boundary conditions from seven global climate models (GCMs) under four emission scenarios. One GCM was run three times under one emission scenario differing only in initial conditions. The ensemble is used to; (i) evaluate the simulated climate for 1961-1990, (ii) assess future climate change and (iii) illustrate uncertainties in future climate change related to natural variability, boundary conditions and emissions. Biases in the 1961-1990 period are strongly related to errors in the large-scale circulation in the GCMs. Significant temperature increases are seen for all of Europe already in the next decades. Precipitation increases in northern and decreases in southern Europe with a zone in between where the sign of change is uncertain. Wind speed decreases in many areas with exceptions in the northern seas and in parts of the Mediterranean in summer. Uncertainty largely depends on choice of GCM and their representation of changes in the large-scale circulation. The uncertainty related to forcing is most important by the end of the century while natural variability sometimes dominates the uncertainty in the nearest few decades.

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Section: Model and Experimentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

21st century changes in the European climate: uncertainties derived from an ensemble of regional climate model simulations

Kjellström¹,

Nikulin²,

Hansson³

et al. 2011

Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography

309

186

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Lakes in RCA3 are simulated with the multilayer lake model PROBE (Ljungemyr et al, 1996). PROBE is forced from RCA3 by 2 m air temperature and humidity, 10 m wind speed and downward short-wave (SW) and long-wave (LW) radiation.…”

Section: The Surface Schemementioning

confidence: 99%

The Rossby Centre Regional Climate model RCA3: model description and performance

Samuelsson¹,

Jones²,

WillÃ©n³

et al. 2011

TELLUSA

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This paper describes the third full release of the Rossby Centre Regional Climate model (RCA3), with an emphasis on changes compared to earlier versions, in particular the introduction of a new tiled land-surface scheme. The model performance over Europe when driven at the boundaries by ERA40 reanalysis is discussed and systematic biases identified. This discussion is performed for key near-surface variables, such as temperature, precipitation, wind speed and snow amounts at both seasonal and daily timescales. An analysis of simulated clouds and surface turbulent and radiation fluxes is also made, to understand the causes of the identified biases. RCA3 shows equally good, or better, correspondence to observations than previous model versions at both analysed timescales. The primary model bias relates to an underestimate of the diurnal surface temperature range over Northern Europe, which maximizes in summer. This error is mainly linked to an overestimate of soil heat flux. It is shown that the introduction of an organic soil component reduces the error significantly. During the summer season, precipitation and surface evaporation are both overestimated over Northern Europe, whereas for most other regions and seasons precipitation and surface turbulent fluxes are well simulated.

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“…In northern latitudes, surface waters tend to absorb heat in summer and release it in autumn, damping the temperature fluctuations in their vicinity and creating a lag in both diurnal and annual cycles of the air temperature, as well as increased precipitation (Dutra et al, 2010;Nordbo et al, 2011;Samuelsson et al, 2010;Subin et al, 2012). Overall, missing the lake and reservoir effects has been shown to deteriorate the results of regional and global climate simulations (Ljungemyr et al, 1996;Long et al, 2007;Deng et al, 2013;Dutra et al, 2010;Samuelsson et al, 2010;Subin et al, 2012;Le Moigne et al, 2016;Irambona et al, 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling reservoir surface temperatures for regional and global climate models: a multi-model study on the inflow and level variation effects

Almeida

Shevchuk²,

Kirillin

et al. 2022

Geosci. Model Dev.

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Abstract. The complexity of the state-of-the-art climate models requires high computational resources and imposes rather simplified parameterization of inland waters. The effect of lakes and reservoirs on the local and regional climate is commonly parameterized in regional or global climate modeling as a function of surface water temperature estimated by atmosphere-coupled one-dimensional lake models. The latter typically neglect one of the major transport mechanisms specific to artificial reservoirs: heat and mass advection due to inflows and outflows. Incorporation of these essentially two-dimensional processes into lake parameterizations requires a trade-off between computational efficiency and physical soundness, which is addressed in this study. We evaluated the performance of the two most used lake parameterization schemes and a machine-learning approach on high-resolution historical water temperature records from 24 reservoirs. Simulations were also performed at both variable and constant water level to explore the thermal structure differences between lakes and reservoirs. Our results highlight the need to include anthropogenic inflow and outflow controls in regional and global climate models. Our findings also highlight the efficiency of the machine-learning approach, which may overperform process-based physical models in both accuracy and computational requirements if applied to reservoirs with long-term observations available. Overall, results suggest that the combined use of process-based physical models and machine-learning models will considerably improve the modeling of air–lake heat and moisture fluxes. A relationship between mean water retention times and the importance of inflows and outflows is established: reservoirs with a retention time shorter than ∼ 100 d, if simulated without inflow and outflow effects, tend to exhibit a statistically significant deviation in the computed surface temperatures regardless of their morphological characteristics.

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Parameterization of lake thermodynamics in a high-resolution weather forecasting model

Cited by 31 publications

References 11 publications

21st century changes in the European climate: uncertainties derived from an ensemble of regional climate model simulations

21st century changes in the European climate: uncertainties derived from an ensemble of regional climate model simulations

The Rossby Centre Regional Climate model RCA3: model description and performance

Modeling reservoir surface temperatures for regional and global climate models: a multi-model study on the inflow and level variation effects

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