Abstract. We present Nemo-Nordic, a Baltic and North Sea model based on the NEMO ocean engine. Surrounded by highly industrialized countries, the Baltic and North seas and their assets associated with shipping, fishing and tourism are vulnerable to anthropogenic pressure and climate change. Ocean models providing reliable forecasts and enabling climatic studies are important tools for the shipping infrastructure and to get a better understanding of the effects of climate change on the marine ecosystems. Nemo-Nordic is intended to be a tool for both short-term and long-term simulations and to be used for ocean forecasting as well as process and climatic studies. Here, the scientific and technical choices within Nemo-Nordic are introduced, and the reasons behind the design of the model and its domain and the inclusion of the two seas are explained. The model's ability to represent barotropic and baroclinic dynamics, as well as the vertical structure of the water column, is presented. Biases are shown and discussed. The short-term capabilities of the model are presented, especially its capabilities to represent sea level on an hourly timescale with a high degree of accuracy. We also show that the model can represent longer timescales, with a focus on the major Baltic inflows and the variability in deep-water salinity in the Baltic Sea.

Multi-model ensembles for sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface salinity (SSS), sea surface currents (SSC), and water transports have been developed for the North Sea and the Baltic Sea using outputs from several operational ocean forecasting models provided by different institutes. The individual models differ in model code, resolution, boundary conditions, atmospheric forcing, and data assimilation. The ensembles are produced on a daily basis. Daily statistics are calculated for each parameter giving information about the spread of the forecasts with standard deviation, ensemble mean and median, and coefficient of variation. High forecast uncertainty, i.e., for SSS and SSC, was found in the Skagerrak, Kattegat (Transition Area between North Sea and Baltic Sea), and the Norwegian Channel. Based on the data collected, longer-term statistical analyses have been done, such as a comparison with satellite data for SST and evaluation of the deviation between forecasts in temporal and spatial scale. Regions of high forecast uncertainty for SSS and SSC have been detected in the Transition Area and the Norwegian Channel where a large spread between the models might evolve due to differences in simulating the frontal structures and their movements. A distinct seasonal pattern could be distinguished for SST with high uncertainty between the forecasts during summer. Forecasts with relatively high deviation from the multi-model ensemble (MME) products or the other individual forecasts were detected for each region and each parameter. The comparison with satellite data showed that the error of the MME products is lowest compared to those of the ensemble members.

Abstract. We present Nemo-Nordic, a Baltic & North Sea model based on the NEMO ocean engine. Surrounded by highly industrialised countries, the Baltic and North seas, and their assets associated with shipping, fishing and tourism; are vulnerable to anthropogenic pressure and climate change. Ocean models providing reliable forecasts, and enabling climatic studies, are important tools for the shipping infrastructure and to get a better understanding of effects of climate change on the marine ecosystems. Nemo-Nordic is intended to come as a tool for both short term and long term simulations, and to be used for ocean forecasting as well as process and climatic studies. Here, the scientific and technical choices within Nemo-Nordic are introduced, and the reasons behind the design of the model and its domain, and the inclusions of the two seas, are explained. The model's ability to represent barotropic and baroclinic dynamics, as well as the vertical structure of the water column, is presented. Biases are shown and discussed. The short term capabilities of the model are presented, and especially its capabilities to represent sea level on an hourly timescale with a high degree of accuracy. We also show that the model can represent longer time scale, with a focus on the Major Baltic Inflows and the variability of deep water salinity in the Baltic Sea.

Abstract. This paper describes Nemo-Nordic 2.0, an operational marine model for the Baltic Sea. The model is used for both near-real-time forecasts and hindcast purposes. It provides estimates of sea surface height, water temperature, salinity, and velocity, as well as sea ice concentration and thickness. The model is based on the NEMO (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean) circulation model and the previous Nemo-Nordic 1.0 configuration by Hordoir et al. (2019). The most notable updates include the switch from NEMO version 3.6 to 4.0, updated model bathymetry, and revised bottom friction formulation. The model domain covers the Baltic Sea and the North Sea with approximately 1 nmi resolution. Vertical grid resolution has been increased from 3 to 1 m in the surface layer. In addition, the numerical solver configuration has been revised to reduce artificial mixing to improve the representation of inflow events. Sea ice is modeled with the SI3 model instead of LIM3. The model is validated against sea level, water temperature, and salinity observations, as well as Baltic Sea ice chart data for a 2-year hindcast simulation (October 2014 to September 2016). Sea level root mean square deviation (RMSD) is typically within 10 cm throughout the Baltic basin. Seasonal sea surface temperature variation is well captured, although the model exhibits a negative bias of approximately −0.5 ∘C. Salinity RMSD is typically below 1.5 g kg−1. The model captures the 2014 major Baltic inflow event and its propagation to the Gotland Deep. The model assessment demonstrates that Nemo-Nordic 2.0 can reproduce the hydrographic features of the Baltic Sea.

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