Parent psychology and the decision to delay childhood vaccination

Callaghan, Timothy; Motta, Matthew; Sylvester, Steven; Trujillo, Kristin Lunz; Blackburn, Christine Crudo

doi:10.1016/j.socscimed.2019.112407

Cited by 123 publications

(86 citation statements)

References 41 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…How do our results connect to the literature? Our finding that EGPB is a significant predictor of compliance is an important, practical contribution to discussions of health policy ( Bischoff et al, 2000 ; Callaghan T et al, 2019 ; Lyons et al, 2020 ). That EGPB in our sample is significantly lower for participants from countries at an early (as opposed to a later stage) stage of the disease suggests the bias is stubborn; it does not go away once the raw numbers become bigger.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 54%

Exponential-growth prediction bias and compliance with safety measures related to COVID-19

Banerjee

Bhattacharya

Majumdar

2021

Social Science & Medicine

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Objective We define prediction bias as the systematic error arising from an incorrect prediction of the number of positive COVID cases x -weeks hence when presented with y -weeks of prior, actual data on the same. Our objective is to investigate the importance of an exponential-growth prediction bias (EGPB) in understanding why the COVID-19 outbreak has exploded. To that end, our goal is to document EGPB in the comprehension of disease data, study how it evolves as the epidemic progresses, and connect it with compliance of personal safety guidelines such as the use of face coverings and social distancing. We also investigate whether a behavioral nudge, cost less to implement, can significantly reduce EGPB. Rationale The scientific basis for our inquiry is the received wisdom that infectious disease spread, especially in the initial stages, follows an exponential function meaning few positive cases can explode into a widespread pandemic if the disease is sufficiently transmittable. If people suffer from EGPB, they will likely make incorrect judgments about their infection risk, which in turn, may lead to reduced compliance of safety protocols. Method To collect data on prediction bias, we ran an incentivized, experiment on a global, online platform with participation from people in forty-three countries, each at different stages of progression of COVID-19. We also constructed several indices of compliance by surveying participants about their frequency of hand-washing and use of sanitizers and masks; their willingness to pay for masks; their view about the social appropriateness of others’ behavior; and their like/dislike of government responses. The prediction data was used to construct several measures of EGPB. Our experimental design permits us to identify the root of under-prediction as EGPB arising from the general tendency to underestimate the speed at which exponential processes unfold. Results Respondents make predictions about the path of the disease using a model that is substantially less convex than the actual data generating process. This creates significant EGPB, which, in turn, is significantly and negatively associated with non-compliance with safety measures. The bias is significantly higher for respondents from countries at a later stage relative to those at an early stage of disease progression. A simple behavioral nudge that shows prior data in terms of raw numbers, as opposed to a graph, causally reduces EGPB. Conclusion Behavioral biases concerning the comprehension of disease data are quantitatively important, and act as severe impediments to effective policy action against the spread of COVID-19. Clear communication of future infection risk via raw numbers could increase the accuracy of risk perception, in turn, facilitating compliance with suggested protective behaviors.

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 54%

Exponential-growth prediction bias and compliance with safety measures related to COVID-19

Banerjee

Bhattacharya

Majumdar

2021

Social Science & Medicine

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Conspiracy theories are attempts to explain events and circumstances from secret plots by powerful and malevolent actors (Douglas et al, 2019). The spread of conspiracy theories is a matter of concern, since exposition to conspiracy theories may have negative consequences, such as decreasing science acceptance (van der Linden, 2015), reduction in intention to engage in politics (Jolley and Douglas, 2014b) and, in the specific case of anti-vaccine conspiracy theories, can affect vaccination intentions (Jolley and Douglas, 2014a) and the pursuit of alternative vaccination schedules (Callaghan et al, 2019). The issue of mistrust-of vaccines, vaccination providers, or policy makers-is considered a driver for vaccine hesitation (Brown et al, 2018).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Natural Stings: Selling Distrust About Vaccines on Brazilian YouTube

2020

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

In this study, we investigate misinformation and disinformation (M&D) about vaccines using a case study approach to understand how M&D about vaccines circulate on YouTube in Portuguese, and who are the channels creating and disseminating this kind of content. The World Health Organization considered vaccine hesitation as one of the greatest threats to global health in 2019. Researchers associated this hesitation to a strengthening of the anti-vaccination movements, suggesting that social media is currently the main spreader of this position. YouTube increasingly becomes a matter of concern, since its recommendation system is identified as a promoter of misinformation and extreme content. Despite YouTube's statements, M&D about vaccines continue to be disseminated in videos in Portuguese, reaching a large audience. We found 52 videos containing M&D about vaccines. The main M&D were the claim of dangerous ingredients in vaccines, the defense of self-direction-freedom of choice, independent research-, the promotion of alternative health services, the myth that vaccines cause diseases, conspiracy theories, and the allegation of vaccine's severe collateral effects. We identified 39 brands advertising on 13 videos of our M&D sample. Although the YouTube Partner Program is an important source of income, the channels use different economic strategies, such as the selling of courses, and therapies and the use of fundraising platforms. We also found that alternative health channels spread distrust about traditional institutions to promote themselves as trusted sources for the audience and thereby profit with alternative health services.

show abstract

“…According to the authors of that study, conspiratorial ideation stands in direct opposition to scientific reasoning, which may explain why individuals with a tendency for conspiratorial thinking would be motivated to reject scientific evidence that challenges their beliefs [18]. Conspiratorial thinking was also found to be an important predictor of parental vaccination decisions in a recent survey of 4010 U.S. adults [19]. In that study, parents with higher levels of conspiratorial thinking were more likely to have delayed vaccines for their children.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 97%

Trait reactance and trust in doctors as predictors of vaccination behavior, vaccine attitudes, and use of complementary and alternative medicine in parents of young children

et al. 2020

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The aim of the present study was to investigate whether anti-vaccination attitudes and behavior, and positive attitudes to complementary and alternative medicine (CAM), are driven by trait reactance and a distrust in medical doctors. Methods The sample consisted of 770 Finnish parents who filled out an online survey. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to examine if trait reactance plays a role in vaccination decisions, vaccine attitudes, and in the use of CAM, and whether that relationship is mediated by trust in medical doctors. Results Parents with higher trait reactance had lower trust in doctors, more negative attitudes to vaccines, a higher likelihood of not accepting vaccines for their children and themselves, and a higher likelihood to use CAM treatments that are not included in evidence-based medicine. Our analyses also revealed associations between vaccination behavior and CAM use and vaccine attitudes and CAM use, but there was no support for the previous notion that these associations would be explained by trait reactance and trust in doctors.

show abstract

Parent psychology and the decision to delay childhood vaccination

Cited by 123 publications

References 41 publications

Exponential-growth prediction bias and compliance with safety measures related to COVID-19

Exponential-growth prediction bias and compliance with safety measures related to COVID-19

Natural Stings: Selling Distrust About Vaccines on Brazilian YouTube

Trait reactance and trust in doctors as predictors of vaccination behavior, vaccine attitudes, and use of complementary and alternative medicine in parents of young children

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About