Participatory scenario planning for developing innovation in community adaptation responses: three contrasting examples from Latin America

Abstract

Abstract:Environmental change requires adaptive responses that are innovative, forward-looking and anticipatory, in order to meet goals for sustainability in socio-ecological systems. This implies transformative shifts in understanding as conceptualised by the idea of 'double'-or 'triple-loop learning'. Achieving this can be difficult as communities often rely on shorter-term coping mechanisms that purport to maintain the status quo. The use of participatory scenario planning to stimulate forward-looking social learning for adaptation was investigated through three contrasting community case studies on natural resource management in Latin America (in Mexico, Argentina and Colombia). Exploratory scenario narratives that synthesized local knowledge and future perceptions were used iteratively to define response options considered robust across multiple futures. Despite its intensive format, participants in each case agreed that scenario planning enabled a more systematic appraisal of the future. Scenarios facilitated innovation by providing scope to propose new types of responses and associated actions. Differences in local context meant that learning about future change developed in diverse ways, showing a need for a reflexive process. Reframing of key issues characteristic of double-loop learning did occur, albeit through different forms of interaction in each location. However, a shift towards transformative actions characteristic of triple-loop learning was less evident. Achieving this would appear to require ongoing use of scenarios to challenge social norms in light of changing drivers. Use of learning loops as a diagnostic to evaluate adaptive responses provided a useful reference framework although in practice both innovation and consolidative approaches can develop concurrently for responses to different issues.

Enabling Reflexive Decision-Making Towards Transformative Adaptation

“…Scenario planning is a well-established way of orientating actors towards long term, unpredictable, and uncertain futures that fit well with the demands of adapting to climate change (Rickards et al 2014;Star et al 2016;Totin et al 2018a;Brown et al 2016;Johnson et al 2012). Scenario planning processes can be facilitated in a range of ways but the ASSAR project opted for a method called transformative scenario planning, coined from a book by the same name (Kahane 2012).…”

“…A scenario is a story whose power derives from its plausibility, which can be grounded in research, lay experience, or a combination of the two. Appraisals of how best to balance science (deemed objective) and experience (deemed subjective) when building scenarios encompasses adaptation, risk management, and futures literature (Star et al 2016;Vervoort et al 2015;Brown et al 2016). Spanning these disciplinary divides, scenarios are hailed as particularly effective in projects that aim to achieve sustainable collaboration (Johnson et al 2012), foster a holistic approach (Rickards et al 2014), and bring in social science perspectives (Falcone 2017)important for a critical examination of climate change politics in fields dominated by the natural sciences (Eguavoen et al 2015).…”

“…Overall agency is part of transformative capacity (Ziervogel et al 2016) and, when divided into its temporal dimensions, is relevant to scenario processes in climate change adaptation projects. In keeping with the compulsion to bring order the world of adaptation (see earlier list of adaptation pathways visualizations), "diagnostic tools" have been developed to measure "mental models" and "learning loops" (Brown et al 2016). The contribution of social science has been to evaluate these tools, or conduct surveys (Johnson et al 2012), which are methods that lend themselves to the extraction of testimonials and endorsements.…”

Climate finance and green growth: reconsidering climate-related institutions, investments, and priorities in Nepal

“…However, important, alternative questions are raised when the biophysical and rural transformation perspectives are considered together. Can adaptation interventions, such as multistakeholder visioning and scenario planning, identify desirable livelihood trajectories in a context of intersecting climate and political-economic change [74,75]? What capacities do households need to take advantage of opportunities for development, such as those arising from education or new employment options?…”

Challenges to enabling and implementing Natural Flood Management in Scotland

“…To tackle this challenge, those seeking to facilitate new forms of flood management must find a way to prompt recognition and reflection on pre-existing assumptions and expectations, during the social learning approaches discussed above. This could be enabled by structured interaction with approaches such as scenarioplanning to enable participant reflection, learning and planning by discussing future possibilities and priorities (Brown et al, 2016).…”