Several works have demonstrated detection of changes of state equations (called structural changes) based on statistical measures but have given no suggestions regarding the functional forms of the state equations after changes. This paper deals with the estimation of structural changes in nonlinear time series models by using particle filters, genetic programming (GP), and its applications. We consider the problems of state estimation from the observed time series that are generated based on nonlinear state equations. It is assumed that structural changes can be detected by some measure of likelihood and that the state equation after changes is modified from its current functional form. Individuals corresponding to functional forms in the GP pool are generated at random, and we apply the crossover operation between the current functional form and the individuals by giving possible multiple functional forms. Then, we have the optimal functional form among the possible functional forms generated by GP from the current form. As an application, we show the estimation of structural change for an artificially generated time series and also discuss the estimation of functional forms for a real economic time series before and after structural changes.In previous studies, several different indicators have been applied for the detection of structural changes in time series generation models. However, in this paper, we aim to estimate the time direction changes from the time of structural change. We assume a nonlinear equation in the PFs, is deformed, and is derived, from the current function .C /, to estimate these multiple deformed functions .A 1 ; A 2 ; :::/ by crossover processing using the GP method [10,[18][19][20][21][22][23][24]. That is, a set of functions, randomly generated in individual pool of GP, can be considered as opponent functions of the transformation of function C . By using the crossover procedure, we can only determine the number of individuals in a population pool that is a plurality of the functional form that is deformed from function C . The maximum likelihood, corresponding to the best functional form A m of the model, for which the error is minimized as a function of the changed structure, can be found by applying the PFs for all this generated function A i . As an application, we use artificial data to verify the effectiveness of this method, and furthermore, we applied this method to real-world time series data and discuss the estimation of the state equation after the structural change.In the following, Section 2 describes the basics of function estimation and extraction of structural changes when using PFs. Section 3 presents the equation estimation by function deformation and GP methods, and examples of the application are given in Section 4.
Related worksIn the following, we summarize the related works regarding change detection of nonlinear dynamics and stress the strengths of our paper. Research on the estimation of structural changes (or change point detection) for nonlinear dynamics a...