Parties, Ethnicity, and Voting in African Elections

Abstract

Ghana's 2008 presidential election caught the world's attention. In a close presidential run-off, the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC) defeated the incumbent New Patriotic Party (NPP) by less than one-half of a percentage point after the NPP came in first place in the first round by just over 1 percent. 1 International and domestic observers praised the Electoral Commission of Ghana (EC) for its professionalism in counting the ballots in a very close set of races and the parties for their adherence to democratic procedures during the campaign. In his speech to the Ghanaian parliament in July 2009, U.S. President Obama remarked that "[t]he people of Ghana have worked hard to put democracy on a firmer footing, with peaceful transfers of power even in the wake of closely contested elections." 2 Despite the recognition due to the EC and parties for a well-managed election, analysts have focused less attention on why voters chose the party they did. In particular, few have examined to what extent ethnicity versus attributes and evaluations of the parties determined for whom Ghanaians cast their vote. This is surprising given the intense campaigns the NDC and NPP ran, the number of declared undecided voters in preelection polls, and that the NDC's candidate did not hail from an ethnic group typically associated with that party.We inquire whether ethnicity or party attributes and perceptions can better explain voting patterns in Ghana's 2008 election. Did Ghanaians have firm opinions of parties? Did NDC and NPP voters form distinct ethnic blocks, or did each party attract votes from a diverse range of ethnic groups? These questions are important because they examine a core debate about elections in sub-Saharan Africa: are elections ethnic headcounts, or do beliefs about parties shape vote choice in far more complex ways than ethnic group membership?To answer these questions, we derive predictions from a new theoretical approach to voting behavior in Africa. We also utilize a robust and novel research design-a nationally representative exit poll conducted of voters on Election Day-to test these hypotheses. The results from our exit poll are clear. While ethnicity was relevant for some voters, evaluations and perceptions of the parties were far more important determinants of vote choice. Although supporters of the NPP and NDC were ethnically heterogeneous 127

Voter Behavior and Government Performance in Malawi: An Application of a Probabilistic Voting Model

“…This result is remarkable, as most voter studies on African countries that are in the published literature highlight the fact that policies play only a minor role in the party preferences and electoral choices of African voters (Ferree 2004;Hoffman and Long 2013). Fig.…”

“…But these empirical voter studies mainly focus on the relative importance of different non-policy factors, e.g. ethnicity and regional origin, in determining African vote choices, while these studies do not relate different voting motives with induced government performance (Ferree and Horowitz 2010;Bratton et al 2011;Hoffman and Long 2013). At the methodological level, the majority of the empirical African voter studies apply socio-structural theories (e.g., the theory of Lazarfeld et al 1968 or Lipset andRokkan 1967) or social psychological theories of voter behavior (Campbell et al 1960).…”

“…At the methodological level, the majority of the empirical African voter studies apply socio-structural theories (e.g., the theory of Lazarfeld et al 1968 or Lipset andRokkan 1967) or social psychological theories of voter behavior (Campbell et al 1960). Hoffman and Long (2013) published one of the few studies of voter behavior in Africa to mention the importance of policy issues and the spatial theory of voting (Downs 1957a, b as well as Enelow and Hinich 1984). However, although these authors mention the relevance of policy distances as variables of party choices, they fail to include these factors in their empirical model (see Hoffman and Long 2013).…”

“…Hoffman and Long (2013) published one of the few studies of voter behavior in Africa to mention the importance of policy issues and the spatial theory of voting (Downs 1957a, b as well as Enelow and Hinich 1984). However, although these authors mention the relevance of policy distances as variables of party choices, they fail to include these factors in their empirical model (see Hoffman and Long 2013). The neglect of policy-oriented voting in African election studies is surprising since spatial theory of voting (Enelow and Hinich 1984) has become the workhorse model of election studies in industrialized countries (Adams et al 2005).…”

“…Especially, a large body of empirical voter studies analyzed African voters (For example, see the literature overview of Hoffman and Long 2013;Ferree andHorowitz 2010 or Bratton et al 2011). But these empirical voter studies mainly focus on the relative importance of different non-policy factors, e.g.…”