Partisan Conflict, National Security Policy Uncertainty and Tourism

Abstract

This study investigates the spillover effects among partisan conflict, national security policy uncertainty and tourism (i.e., tourist arrivals, exports, and stock) in the U.S. by using the TVP-VAR-based connectedness measures. Specifically, we discuss the association strength, spillover direction and dynamic linkages among the three under this framework. The results show that partisan conflict and national security policy uncertainty are net transmitters of spillovers to tourism, and those effects are more potent for inbound tourism demand than tourism stock performance. Moreover, the magnitude of spillovers among the three is time-varying and increases significantly in times of crisis, especially during the 9/11 attacks, the global financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. Our results have important implications for tourism managers to develop sustainable development strategies to buffer or adapt to the uncertainty impact.

Exploring the Relationship between Stochastic Events and Patterns of International Tourism in Kenya

“…Stochastic events like political instabilities, pandemics, unfavorable weather conditions, natural disasters, terrorism, travel advisories and financial recession negatively affect tourism demand. For instance, the SARs pandemic in 2003, the September 2001 attack, various earthquakes, episodes of social unrest and pandemics like COVID-19 all impacted on tourism demand negatively (Ahmad et al, 2023;Aziz et al, 2022;R. Zhang et al, 2022).…”