Party Elites' Perceptions of Voters and Public Opinion

Abstract

Given the vast amounts of research on party competition, party strategy, political communication and electoral campaigning, surprisingly little attention has been devoted to the study of national party elites' perceptions of voters and public opinion. This article argues that the mindset of leading party officials, and more specifically their perceptions of voter and public opinion rationality, driving forces and knowledge, is a much‐neglected explanation for why parties adopt the electoral strategies they do. Analysed here are unique internal party documents from two Swedish parties during the period 1964 to 1991: the Social Democratic Party and the Conservative Party. A simple analytic framework is proposed for the study of party elite perceptions of voters and public opinion. In contrast to the overwhelmingly pessimistic view of voter rationality that still prevails in contemporary research, the findings presented in this article suggest that national party elites in general have had a surprisingly positive view of voters and, in particular, public opinion. Perceptions of voters and public opinion were largely unaffected by the parties' electoral fortunes, and did not become gloomier over time.

Do campaign strategies and tactics matter? Exploring party elite perceptions of what matters when explaining election outcomes

“…Campaign strategies and tactics may matter and in some cases be perceived as important but not as important as the substance of politics or the political leadership. In this respect, the results support research that emphasizes the importance of core political factors when explaining election outcomes, and fit with previous research on party elites' perceptions (Ekengren and Oscarsson, ).…”

“…Otherwise, it would be difficult for them to develop their strategies for winning elections and to use scarce resources effectively. As noted by Ekengren and Oscarsson (: 1), the perceptions of party elites are ‘essential for explaining the strategic actions taken by party elites.’ For example, if party elites believe that most voters base their voting decision on the parties' ideological values, they are likely to emphasize their ideological values in their campaign communication. If, on the other hand, they believe that most voters base their voting decision on the party leader, they are likely to develop campaign strategies emphasizing the party leader and his or her competence and trustworthiness.…”

“…Despite this, there is virtually no research on party elites and their perceptions or working theories of voting behavior. The only exception is a couple of studies by Ekengren and Oscarsson (), based on internal documents from the two major Swedish parties, the Social Democratic party and the Conservative party, between 1964 and 1991. These studies suggest that both parties tend to perceive voters as mainly coherent and predictable, driven by overall rather stable predispositions, and as generally speaking well‐informed and interested in politics.…”

“…These studies suggest that both parties tend to perceive voters as mainly coherent and predictable, driven by overall rather stable predispositions, and as generally speaking well‐informed and interested in politics. Furthermore, in these respects, no major changes across time could be discerned, except that the media are perceived to have become more important across time (Ekengren and Oscarsson, : 17–20).…”

Dynamics of Regulatory Policymaking in Sweden: The Role of Media Advocacy and Public Opinion

“…Otherwise, they risk being viewed as unresponsive to the wishes of the public and out of touch with what the citizens want, with negative electoral consequences. This dynamic is reinforced when party elites have positive views of the rationality of public opinion (as is the case in Sweden), which increases the likelihood that they consider the public's wishes (Ekengren & Oscarsson ).…”