Past and future global transformation of terrestrial ecosystems under climate change

Nolan, Connor; Overpeck, Jonathan T.; Allen, Judy R M; Anderson, Patricia M.; Betancourt, Julio L.; Binney, Heather; Brewer, Simon; Bush, Mark B.; Chase, Brian M.; Cheddadi, Rachid; Djamali, Morteza; Dodson, John; Edwards, Mary E.; Gosling, William D.; Haberle, Simon; Hotchkiss, Sara C.; Huntley, Brian; Ivory, Sarah J.; Kershaw, A. Peter; Kim, Soo Hyun; Latorre, Claudio; Leydet, Michelle; Lézine, Anne Marie; Liu, Kam Biu; Liu, Yao; Lozhkin, Anatoly; McGlone, Matt S.; Marchant, Robert; Momohara, Arata; Moreno, Patricio I.; Müller, Stefanie; Otto‐Bliesner, Bette L.; Shen, Caiming; Stevenson, Janelle; Takahara, Hikaru; Tarasov, Pavel E.; Tipton, John; Vincens, Annie; Weng, Chengyu; Xu, Qinghai; Zheng, Zhuo; Jackson, Stephen T.

doi:10.1126/science.aan5360

Cited by 383 publications

(250 citation statements)

References 86 publications

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“…These novel insights point to the importance of incorporating plant economic traits and rhizosphere processes in Earth system models to provide more realistic projections of soil carbon dynamics (Finzi et al, 2015;Luo et al, 2016;Perveen et al, 2014;Reich, 2014). Given the important shifts in vegetation composition to be expected worldwide with global change (Nolan et al, 2018), this would be critical to improve our predictions of terrestrial ecosystem C dynamics and climate feedbacks (Heimann & Reichstein, 2008).…”

Section: Implications For Plant Species Control Over Long-term Soilmentioning

confidence: 99%

Plant economic strategies of grassland species control soil carbon dynamics through rhizodeposition

Cros²,

et al. 2019

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The plant economics spectrum is increasingly recognized as a major determinant of plant species effects on terrestrial ecosystem functioning related to carbon cycling. However, the role of plant economic strategies in the effects of living root activity on soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics through rhizodeposition remains unexplored, despite SOC being the largest terrestrial carbon pool. Using a continuous 13C‐labelling method allowing partitioning of plant and soil sources to carbon fluxes and pools, we studied here the linkages between plant economic strategies and SOC cycling processes in a ‘common garden’ greenhouse experiment. It includes a panel of 12 grassland species selected along a gradient of economic traits and belonging to three functionnal groups (C3 grasses, forbs and legumes). All species induced an acceleration of native SOC mineralization but this rhizosphere priming effect (RPE) substantially differed across species and varied eleven‐fold by the end of the experiment (from +26% to +295% relative to unplanted soil). Interspecific variation in RPE was primarily linked to plant photosynthetic activity associated to species economic strategies of light and CO2 resource acquisition and processing. Fast‐growing acquisitive species, such as legumes, featured large RPE, in relation with their high canopy photosynthesis coupled to high leaf photosynthetic capacity and large net primary productivity allocated above‐ground. This large RPE was further associated with high root metabolic activity, rhizodeposition and soil microbial activity. In contrast, fine‐root growth and economic traits related to soil resource foraging ability were poor predictors of RPE. The formation of new root‐derived SOC varied nine‐fold across species and was similarly positively related to the net primary productivity allocated above‐ground. Fast‐growing acquisitive species with a high photosynthetic activity induced a disproportionately large RPE relative to SOC formation. Synthesis. Overall, our study demonstrates that rhizodeposition is a major mechanism through which plant economic strategies of grassland species control soil carbon dynamics. Acquisitive versus conservative species were associated with high versus low rates of photosynthesis and rhizodeposition, in turn leading to fast versus slow SOC turnover. This emphasizes the importance of considering rhizosphere processes for understanding plant species effects on soil biogeochemistry.

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Section: Implications For Plant Species Control Over Long-term Soilmentioning

confidence: 99%

Plant economic strategies of grassland species control soil carbon dynamics through rhizodeposition

Cros²,

et al. 2019

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“…Climate change, altered disturbance regimes, and other anthropogenic impacts are transforming ecosystems across the globe, and the rate of ecosystem change is expected to increase over the next century (Scheffer et al ; Nolan et al ; Ratajczak et al ). Understanding the drivers of disturbance and the mechanisms that inhibit or enable resilience following disturbance have been a central focus of basic and applied ecology during the past 40 years (Holling ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Transient population dynamics impede restoration and may promote ecosystem transformation after disturbance

et al. 2019

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The apparent failure of ecosystems to recover from increasingly widespread disturbance is a global concern. Despite growing focus on factors inhibiting resilience and restoration, we still know very little about how demographic and population processes influence recovery. Using inverse and forward demographic modelling of 531 post‐fire sagebrush populations across the western US, we show that demographic processes during recovery from seeds do not initially lead to population growth but rather to years of population decline, low density, and risk of extirpation after disturbance and restoration, even at sites with potential to support long‐term, stable populations. Changes in population structure, and resulting transient population dynamics, lead to a > 50% decline in population growth rate after disturbance and significant reductions in population density. Our results indicate that demographic processes influence the recovery of ecosystems from disturbance and that demographic analyses can be used by resource managers to anticipate ecological transformation risk.

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“…Already, ample observational evidence exists that changes in climate are inducing ecosystem transformations through tree mortality (Allen et al 2010, Millar andStephenson 2015) and changes in species composition (Allen andBreshears 1998, Millar andStephenson 2015). Process-based (Settele et al 2014, McDowell et al 2016) and statistical (Rehfeldt et al 2006, Williams et al 2007, Pearson et al 2013) models indicate a strong potential for continued ecological transformation, and paleological analyses indicate that, if we continue on our current emission trajectory, drastic changes in global ecosystem structure and function are likely by the end of this century (Nolan et al 2018a).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Carbon sequestration and biodiversity co‐benefits of preserving forests in the western United States

Buotte

Law

Ripple

et al. 2019

Ecological Applications

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Forest carbon sequestration via forest preservation can be a viable climate change mitigation strategy. Here, we identify forests in the western conterminous United States with high potential carbon sequestration and low vulnerability to future drought and fire, as simulated using the Community Land Model and two high carbon emission scenario (RCP 8.5) climate models. High‐productivity, low‐vulnerability forests have the potential to sequester up to 5,450 Tg CO2 equivalent (1,485 Tg C) by 2099, which is up to 20% of the global mitigation potential previously identified for all temperate and boreal forests, or up to ~6 yr of current regional fossil fuel emissions. Additionally, these forests currently have high above‐ and belowground carbon density, high tree species richness, and a high proportion of critical habitat for endangered vertebrate species, indicating a strong potential to support biodiversity into the future and promote ecosystem resilience to climate change. We stress that some forest lands have low carbon sequestration potential but high biodiversity, underscoring the need to consider multiple criteria when designing a land preservation portfolio. Our work demonstrates how process models and ecological criteria can be used to prioritize landscape preservation for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and preserving biodiversity in a rapidly changing climate.

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Past and future global transformation of terrestrial ecosystems under climate change

Cited by 383 publications

References 86 publications

Plant economic strategies of grassland species control soil carbon dynamics through rhizodeposition

Plant economic strategies of grassland species control soil carbon dynamics through rhizodeposition

Transient population dynamics impede restoration and may promote ecosystem transformation after disturbance

Carbon sequestration and biodiversity co‐benefits of preserving forests in the western United States

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