Past, present and future distributions of bumblebees in South America: Identifying priority species and areas for conservation

Abstract

Climate change has been commonly associated with a decline of bumblebee populations around the world. However, most information regarding the impacts of climate change on bumblebees is derived from North America and Europe, and little is known about South American species. Here we applied ecological niche modelling techniques to estimate the past, present and future distributions of six Bombus species found in South America. These data were used to estimate climatically stable areas (CSAs) for each species and, combined with information on land cover and protected area network, identify species and areas for the conservation of these important pollinators. The models predicted a reduction in climatically suitable habitats from Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to the present for most species. Similarly, all species were predicted to lose climatically suitable areas in future climate scenarios, ranging from 9% to 78%, depending on the species and climate change scenario. The percentage of legally protected CSAs varied between 4.0% and 48.2% among species, mainly due to differences in the protected area network among the biomes in which they occur. A significant portion of the distribution range of most species includes agricultural areas, which likely increases bumblebee exposure to pesticides. Based on the estimated habitat loss due to climate change, as well as from land cover and protected area, our results indicate that Bombus bellicosus, Bombus brevivillus and Bombus brasiliensis are the most endangered species of those evaluated. Synthesis and applications. Our findings provide a framework for conservation strategies of six species of South American bumblebees, by prioritizing species and areas for conservation considering their distribution range and the climatically stable areas under different climate change scenarios.

Beyond the Decline of Wild Bees: Optimizing Conservation Measures and Bringing Together the Actors

“…More complex methods assume that this metric alone is too static and should encompass changes in climate and species distribution. These dynamic components can notably be assessed using Ecological Nich Models as Krechemer and Marchioro [90] did for several species of South-American bumblebees. In these protected areas, ecological restoration of habitats can increase wild bee abundance and richness across a wide range of landscapes and geographical [91].…”

Protected areas network is not adequate to protect a critically endangered East Africa Chelonian: Modelling distribution of pancake tortoise, Malacochersus tornieri under current and future climates

“…For the development of specific and appropriate management and conservation plans for pancake tortoises, it is crucial to understand whether these protected areas will continue to be viable for protecting suitable habitats for the species in the event of climate change. Considering species’ range varies under different climatic scenarios [ 3 , 5 , 34 , 35 ] while the size of most protected areas tends to remain the same [ 36 ], more species may eventually be placed at risk of extinction, especially threatened species [ 37 ]. Therefore, in order to align protected areas with suitable habitat ranges [ 38 ] and enhance the conservation of threatened species in different climatic scenarios [ 36 ], SDMs can be used.…”

Protected areas network is not adequate to protect a critically endangered East Africa Chelonian: Modelling distribution of pancake tortoise, Malacochersus tornieri under current and future climates

“…Therefore, understanding whether these protected areas will continue to be viable for protecting suitable habitats for pancake tortoises in the event of climate change is crucial to the development of specific and appropriate management and conservation plans for the species. Considering the species’ range varies under different climatic scenarios [1,2,26,27] while the size of most protected areas tends to remain the same [28], more species may eventually be placed at risk of extinction, especially threatened species [29]. Therefore, in order to align protected areas with suitable habitat ranges [30] and enhance the conservation of threatened species in different climatic scenarios [28], SDMs are essential.…”

“…SDMs have been used to assess the impact of climate change on the distribution of different species (e.g. [24,25,28,31]). These models use location data and environmental variables to predict the suitable distributional range of a species under climate change conditions [24,28], which is essential when designing adequate species management programmes, as well as for endangered species conservation planning [32].…”

“…[24,25,28,31]). These models use location data and environmental variables to predict the suitable distributional range of a species under climate change conditions [24,28], which is essential when designing adequate species management programmes, as well as for endangered species conservation planning [32]. Although Bombi et al [33] have used SDMs to model the distribution of all African tortoise species, including the pancake tortoise, their study did not predict the future distribution of the species.…”