Cancers of the upper aero-digestive tract (i.e., oral cavity, pharynx, larynx and oesophagus) are largely attributable to smoking and drinking habits, but the correct estimation of the dose-response relationship between alcohol and cancer risk is challenging.Step functions are widely used to estimate risks and to evaluate trends of continuous exposure. However, results are influenced by the selection of the reference category and cutpoints. More flexible models, like spline regression and fractional polynomial models, may be an attractive alternative for avoiding strict assumptions about the dose-response relationship. Data from a large series of hospital-based case-control studies conducted in Italy and the Swiss Canton of Vaud in the last 2 decades were reassessed to compare findings from logistic regression spline models and standard step function analysis. For all examined cancers, the risk increased to the consumption of 150 grams of ethanol per day (1.5 litre/day of wine), with a possible threshold effect emerging for cancer of the pharynx and larynx (<50 grams of ethanol per day) only. For higher consumptions, the risks flattened. Our study suggests that regression spline models can be useful to estimate the pattern of risk of a continuous exposure variable, such as alcohol consumption, and provide more accurate estimates than categorical analysis when ORs within each interval, especially in the reference category, are not homogeneous.Key words: spline models; upper aero-digestive tract cancer; dose-response Alcohol consumption, together with tobacco smoking, is an established risk factor for cancer of the upper aero-digestive tract (UADT, i.e., oral cavity, pharynx, larynx and oesophagus). [1][2][3] These neoplasms account for nearly 10% of all male cancers diagnosed in some Italian regions (e.g., the Northeast of Italy) where alcohol consumption is heavy. 4 The risk of UADT cancers is strongly related to the amount of ethanol drunk 1,2 and persists several years after drinking cessation. 5 A strong dose-response relationship between alcohol and the risk of UADT tumours emerged by means of categorical analysis, 1,2,6 but some aspects of the relationship (e.g., the presence of any threshold effect) remain unclear. 7 Step function analysis in the risk estimation for continuous variables has been supported by a number of authors. However, concerns were raised about the potential bias introduced by categorization, 8 -10 as step function analysis is based on the assumption that risks are constant within each interval. Therefore, results and their statistical significance are influenced by the choice of reference category and cutpoints. 11 More flexible approaches for the estimation of the dose-response relationship, such as regression splines and fractional polynomial regression, have long been proposed. [12][13][14][15] However, these methods are still rarely used in epidemiologic research, despite their simple algebraic form that makes them easy to apply by the most common matrix programming languages.A la...