Pathways to Carbon-Free Transport in Germany until 2050

Abstract

The transport sector has to be widely decarbonized by 2050 to reach the targets of the Paris Agreement. This can be performed with different drive trains and energy carriers. This paper explored four pathways to a carbon-free transport sector in Germany in 2050 with foci on electricity, hydrogen, synthetic methane, or liquid synthetic fuels. We used a transport demand model for future vehicle use and a simulation model for the determination of alternative fuel vehicle market shares. We found a large share of electric vehicles in all scenarios, even in the scenarios with a focus on other fuels. In all scenarios, the final energy consumption decreased significantly, most strongly when the focus was on electricity and almost one-third lower in primary energy demand compared with the other scenarios. A further decrease of energy demand is possible with an even faster adoption of electric vehicles, yet fuel cost then has to be even higher or electricity prices lower.

Avoid, Shift or Improve Passenger Transport? Impacts on the Energy System

“…National studies in Germany compute passenger transport final energy demands between 1.2 MWh/a/cap with strong assumptions for sufficiency and efficiency [49] and 2.1 MWh/a/cap with moderate behavioural change and moderate adoption of BEVs [40]. Assumptions for transport demand and reported pkm differ from ours, but these studies do not employ detailed transport models or comprehensive approaches to transformation drivers.…”

“…We do not make assumptions about medium-and long-distance flight reductions because they are not covered by our qualitative-quantitative research design and would outweigh other levers of change. Air travel is expected to account for more than half of German passenger transport's energy demand in 2045 [40]. Air transport technologies are not expected to change, except for the adoption of 100% synthetic fuels.…”

“…We differentiate in three different drivetrain technologies: BEVs, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), and internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs). Fuel-cell electric vehicles are not part of our vehicle stock because they are not expected to play a role by the year 2040 in the reference case of any major national scenario [16,40]. The vehicle fleet's drivetrain composition of our Mix scenarios corresponds to the ''Mix'' scenario in the German national Ariadne project in the year 2040 [16], as described in Table 1.…”

Electric Car Market Analysis Using Open Data: Sales, Volatility Assessment, and Forecasting

“…The first group represents technology overviews with cautious qualitative evaluation of EV prospects (see, for example, early papers [5][6][7][8]). The second group includes numerous publications with quantitative forecasts, made using simulation and modeling [9][10][11][12][13][14]. In such theoretical papers, researchers study…”