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The supply of shared mobility solutions has been increasing during the last years, so has the popularity of Mobility-as-a-Service. Both promise an easy access to and usage of shared vehicles or shared rides. Nevertheless, usage of these services remains low in German cities. Hence, the question arises: what determines the utility of travellers regarding shared modes and how is this different to conventional modes? To answer this, we conduct a stated preference experiment amongst 1,445 respondents (8,670 observations). The sample is drawn from residents of the 83 largest cities in Germany. We consider four shared (e-scooter-, bike-, carsharing, and ridepooling) and three conventional modes (walking, private car, and public transport). We estimate a mixed logit model and calculate the respective value of travel time (VoT) as well as the value of access, egress, and parking search time. The importance of the individual attributes is analysed drawing on a part-worth analysis. Further, we calculate average treatment effects to show simulated mode-choice probability changes. We find that costs are more important than travel time for carsharing and ridepooling whilst they are equally important for the remaining modes. For shared services, access is more important than egress. Moreover, among the shared services, e-scootersharing shows the highest VoT (23.73 EUR/h), followed by bikesharing (18.53 EUR/h). Finally, cost changes to private cars and public transport show the highest simulated shifting potential with carsharing profiting most from cost increases in these two modes.

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In the transport sector, where change comes with inertia and investments are made with a long term perspective, decision makers need to consider how the future may look like in the very long term. The work presented in this paper is a scenario analysis focusing on the evolution of transport demand towards 2050, aiming to identify related challenges for European industrial and policy players. It follows up on the work of other recent attempts to study the future of transport from a European perspective, integrating findings from these studies, updating new trends and applying a specific scenario analysis methodology relying also on expert consultation. The diversity of the scenarios created unfolds aspects of the future transport system with rather different outcomes on issues like the volume of transport, travel motives, the prevalent spatial scales of transport and logistics, people's preferences towards different transport attributes, the relevancy of the State versus the private initiative in transport production, the level of competition, or the relative importance of environment and resource scarcity in setting an agenda for innovation and regulations. Beyond the subsequent challenges and opportunities identified in this work, the scenarios developed may be a useful basis for individual actors of distinct backgrounds to build their own specific futures, supporting them in defining strategies for the future.

The transport sector has to be widely decarbonized by 2050 to reach the targets of the Paris Agreement. This can be performed with different drive trains and energy carriers. This paper explored four pathways to a carbon-free transport sector in Germany in 2050 with foci on electricity, hydrogen, synthetic methane, or liquid synthetic fuels. We used a transport demand model for future vehicle use and a simulation model for the determination of alternative fuel vehicle market shares. We found a large share of electric vehicles in all scenarios, even in the scenarios with a focus on other fuels. In all scenarios, the final energy consumption decreased significantly, most strongly when the focus was on electricity and almost one-third lower in primary energy demand compared with the other scenarios. A further decrease of energy demand is possible with an even faster adoption of electric vehicles, yet fuel cost then has to be even higher or electricity prices lower.