Patterns of Co‐movement Between South Africa and Germany: Evidence From the Period 1985 to 2006

Kabundi, Alain; Loots, Elsabe

doi:10.1111/j.1813-6982.2010.01253.x

Cited by 4 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…His analysis explores various transmission mechanisms and con…rms co-movement of output between the two countries. A similar study by Kabundi and Loots (2010), examines the co-movement between Germany and SA over the period 1985 to 2006. Although this study con…rms the presence of co-movement of output growth between SA and Germany, the co-movement is negative and weak over the long-run.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Business cycle co-movements between South Africa and the BRIC countries

Çakır

Kabundi

2013

Applied Economics

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This paper investigates the co-movement of business cycles between South Africa and the other BRICS countries namely, Brazil, Russia, India, and China, the so-called BRICs. In particular, it identi…es the nature and key features of the co-movement of cycles of South African economy with cycles of the BRICs. It uses the dynamic factor model to a set of 307 macroeconomic series during the period 1995Q2-2009Q4. We …nd signi…cant evidence of synchronization between South Africa and the BRIC countries over the business cycle, although the magnitude of co-movement di¤ers with each country. India portrays strong ties with South Africa over time. Moreover, Brazil, China, and Russia lead South Africa in the long-run, while India is contemporaneous. Further, the …ndings imply that the …rst two factors are BRICS factors while the third one is a US factor.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Business cycle co-movements between South Africa and the BRIC countries

Çakır

Kabundi

2013

Applied Economics

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“…For example, Boshoff and Fourie (2010) incorporate an analysis of deviation cycles in South African real output as part of their assessment of the relationship between economic activity and trade in the early Cape colony, where they find evidence that deviation cycles in productivity and trade are positively related. Kabundi and Loots (2007) depart from the extraction of deviation cycles and subsequent estimation of dynamic correlation coefficients in their analysis of co-movement between South African real output and those of the other 13 Southern African development community countries, and similar research has been conducted for South Africa and Germany (Kabundi & Loots 2010) and South Africa and the United States of America (U)S (Kabundi 2009). In the international literature, deviation cycles have served as a point of departure for establishing stylised facts about business cycles in developed and developing countries.…”

Section: Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

What do deviation cycles measure? An analysis of the informational content of filter-based business cycles

Boshoff

McLean

2018

SAJEMS

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Background: Empirical business cycle research typically commences with the extraction of a so-called deviation cycle using a time-series smoothing filter. This methodology is appealing for its pragmatism; it is easy to implement, and the output it produces is conveniently interpreted as percentage deviations from the natural level of output. However, recent literature offers staunch criticism of deviation cycle analysis, especially with regards to the assumption implicitly underlying it – that business cycle fluctuations are restricted to distinct intervals on the frequency domain.Aim: Despite its lack of a basis in theory, the analysis of deviation cycles over particular frequency ranges may still yield useful stylised business cycle facts. This, however, hinges on whether the information that a frequency filter captures consistently aligns with relevant theory-based business cycle concepts. Whether this is the case is an empirical matter, and herein lies the rationale for our research.Setting: We investigate the informational content of South Africa’s output deviation cycles.Methods: We extract deviation cycles at standard high- and medium-frequency ranges (denoted as short- and medium-term deviation cycles respectively) and analyse their informational overlap with the components of an alternative theory-based estimate of the business cycle, decomposed into demand, supply, domestic and foreign sources of business cycle dynamics.Results: Our findings suggest that the contents of deviation cycles extracted over a high-frequency range do not neatly correspond to the transitory ‘demand-driven’ business cycle, while cycles extracted over a medium-frequency range correspond closely to the combined path of permanent output shocks.Conclusion: One should thus be cautious of drawing strong conclusions about the nature of business cycles from filter-based deviation cycle estimates, particularly if the objective of the study relies on assuming that high-frequency deviation cycles correspond to transitory demand shocks.

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“…Studies on regional business cycles developed in the 1920s and were pioneered by McLaughlin (1930), Vining (1945, 1946a, 1946b, 1949) and Isard (1949). In the last decade, many studies on the dynamics of the business cycle in different regions or countries have been conducted (Still, 1997; Clark and Eric, 1999; Rissman, 1999; Carlino and DeFina, 2004; Selover et al ., 2005; Owyang et al ., 2005, 2009; Hall and McDermott, 2007; Kabundi and Loots, 2007, 2010; Norman and Walker, 2007; Kabundi, 2009).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Regional Business Cycle Phases in Taiwan

Liu

2011

South African J Economics

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This paper uses both univariate and multivariate Markov‐switching models to explore the characteristics of the regional business cycle phases in Taiwan. In particular, this paper provides novel evidence regarding the “turning‐point identification” puzzle in Taiwan that to date has not been fully resolved. We find that the regime‐switching behaviour of the common regional business cycle is consistent (or even precedes recession) with the business cycle expansion and contraction indicators used by the Council for Economic Planning and Development. This finding suggests that the common regional business cycle identifies the turning point after the 1990s. This finding also suggests that the employment growth index would be a great indicator for monitoring the business cycle in Taiwan.

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Patterns of Co‐movement Between South Africa and Germany: Evidence From the Period 1985 to 2006

Cited by 4 publications

References 22 publications

Business cycle co-movements between South Africa and the BRIC countries

Business cycle co-movements between South Africa and the BRIC countries

What do deviation cycles measure? An analysis of the informational content of filter-based business cycles

Regional Business Cycle Phases in Taiwan

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