“…This includes overt behavior such as freezing (Bouton & Bolles, 1980;Roelofs, Hagenaars, & Stins, 2010), autonomic nervous system responses, measured as changes in skin conductance (Bach, Daunizeau, Friston, & Dolan, 2010;Staib, Castegnetti, & Bach, 2015), pupil size (Korn, Staib, Tzovara, Castegnetti, & Bach, 2017), heart period (Castegnetti et al, 2016) or respiration amplitude (Castegnetti, Tzovara, Staib, Gerster, & Bach, 2017), and the modulation of externally elicited behaviours, such as fear-potentiated startle (Blumenthal, 1988;Blumenthal et al, 2005;Khemka, Tzovara, Gerster, Quednow, & Bach, 2017) or Pavlovian-to-instrumental transfer (Xia, Gurkina, & Bach, 2019a). While all of these measures have specific advantages and disadvantages (see Ojala & Bach, 2020 for a review), a common limitation is their modest retrodictive validity.…”