Peculiarities of sporadic variations in density and anisotropy of galactic cosmic rays in solar cycle 24

Grigoryev, Vladislav; Gerasimova, S. K.; Gololobov, P. Yu.; Starodubtsev, S. A.; Zverev, Anton

doi:10.12737/szf-81202204

“…Since the early 2000s we are working on developing a space weather forecasting technique based on ground-based measurements of cosmic rays (Grigoryev et al 2011;Grigoryev et al 2015). Thus, the creation of a database of neutron monitors installed on the worldwide network of CR stations (NMDB) in 2007, which provides real-time measurement data, allowed us to begin the practical implementation of the space weather forecasting algorithm based on the global survey method developed in Yakutsk at the end of the 1960s.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

NMDB and space weather forecasting

Gololobov,

Starodubtsev,

Grigoryev

et al. 2023

Cosmic Ray Studies With Neutron Detectors

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From the creation of NMDB in 2007 and through the growth in the number of stations and the data accumulation, the ShICRA SB RAS group continuously have used its facilities. For the last years we have created a method for short-term forecasting of intense geomagnetic storms with an advance time 1-2 days. The probability of forecasting is around 80%. We have reported about the method in the previous NMDB: virtual symposium on cosmic ray studies with neutron detectors in 2020. The method is based on the global survey method that was developed in Yakutsk in 1960s and uses the world network of neutron monitors as a single multidirectional device. The method is intended to estimate hourly dynamics of cosmic ray anisotropy in free-space. Note that only with the NMDB creation we managed to implement it in real time mode. Now we started work on creating another method for space weather forecasting by measurements of cosmic ray fluctuations. For this purpose, we use 1-min data of NMDB. In the current report we present the first results of our investigation on forecasting of intense geomagnetic storms with Dst less -50nT. The results obtained indicate the possibility of developing and implementing in real time a method for predicting strong geophysical manifestations of space weather on the basis of ground-based cosmic ray measurements.

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“…Since the early 2000s we are working on developing a space weather forecasting technique based on ground-based measurements of cosmic rays (Grigoryev et al 2011;Grigoryev et al 2015). Thus, the creation of a database of neutron monitors installed on the worldwide network of CR stations (NMDB) in 2007, which provides real-time measurement data, allowed us to begin the practical implementation of the space weather forecasting algorithm based on the global survey method developed in Yakutsk at the end of the 1960s.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

NMDB@Athens

2023

Cosmic Ray Studies With Neutron Detectors

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This volume documents the papers presented at the hybrid symposium on cosmic ray studies with neutron monitors in Athens in September 2022. The contributions are dedicated to six topics: cosmic rays in the heliosphere, GLE analysis and space weather research, cosmic rays and the Earth's atmosphere, instrumentation and stability of neutron detectors, their response functions, and the data bases and catalogues of the Real-Time database for high resolution Neutron Monitor measurements (NMDB) project, which are freely accessible to a large user community.

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Geoefficiency of Sporadic Phenomena in Solar Cycle 24

Belov,

Belova,

Shlyk

et al. 2023

Geomagnetizm i aèronomiâ

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The specific features of solar cycle 24 are discussed, including cosmic ray variations, characteristicsof solar flares, proton events, coronal mass ejections, and the level of geomagnetic activity. It is shownthat in terms of the sunspot number and other manifestations of solar activity, cycle 24 turned out to be themost modest one over the last 100 years of observations. A significant decrease in the geoefficiency of varioussolar events is described, which manifested itself in a smaller number and magnitude of Forbusheffects recorded on the Earth, the enhancements of the fluxes of protons and electrons of different energies,and geomagnetic storms.

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Peculiarities of sporadic variations in density and anisotropy of galactic cosmic rays in solar cycle 24

Cited by 3 publications

References 8 publications

NMDB and space weather forecasting

NMDB and space weather forecasting

NMDB@Athens

Geoefficiency of Sporadic Phenomena in Solar Cycle 24

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