Peramalan Produksi Padi Di Kabupaten Badung, Gianyar, Dan Tabanan Dengan Metode Vector Autoregression (Var)

Abstract

Rice is one of the staple foodstuffs whose availability is very important for public consumption in Indonesia, especially Bali Province. The three regencies that produce the most rice in Bali they are Badung, Gianyar and Tabanan. This study aims to model, predict, and analyze the relationship between rice production in Badung, Gianyar, and Tabanan Regency from January 2018 to December 2019 using vector autoregression (VAR) method. VAR method is a time series method that can be used to model and predict time series with more than one variable simultaneously. The results of this study, namely the VAR model obtained to predict the amount of rice production in Badung, Gianyar, and Tabanan Regencies is third order VAR (VAR (3)). Based on the forecasting criteria for the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) in this model, a reasonable forecast is obtained for the rice production variables in Badung and Gianyar regencies, and good forecasting for the rice production variables in Tabanan Regency is obtained. Then, based on the granger causality analysis, it is found that the amount of rice production in Gianyar Regency affects the amount of rice production in Badung and Tabanan Regencies, and the amount of rice production in Badung Regency affects the amount of rice production in Gianyar Regency.