Perbandingan  Metode  Fuzzy  Time  Series  Hsu  Dan  Double  Exponential  Smoothing  Pada  Peramalan  Nilai  Tukar  Rupiah  Terhadap Dolar Amerika

Anggraeni, Wulan

doi:10.36226/jrmb.v1i2.19

Cited by 4 publications

(4 citation statements)

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“…A tendency is a smoothed estimate of average growth at the ending of each period. [1,[3][4][5][6] A basic concept of these technique was illustrated in equation ( 1), ( )…”

Section: Research Methods (Des)mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…That parameter value was being utilized to reduce the observed value (real value) in the older era exponentially. [1,4,7] DES Utilizing Brown's Technique through the m-periodahead forecast is provided by:…”

Section: Brown's Linear Exponential Smoothingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This approach employs a prediction equation as well as 2 smoothing equations (one for each level as well as one for each trend). [4,[7][8][9][10] ˆ…”

Section: Holt's Linear Exponential Smoothingmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A Comparison between Brown’s and Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing for Forecasting Applied Generation Electrical Energies in Kurdistan Region

Omer

Blbas

Kadir

2021

Cihan U Erbil SCI J

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The process of producing electricity from sources of energy is known as electricity production. Electric also isn't freely accessible in environment, thus it should be "manufactured" (i.e., converting another kinds of energy to electrical energy) by utilities with in electricity industry (transportation, distributing, and so on).Moreover, the objective of this study is to compared of Brown’s as well as Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing also build a best forecasting time series model among two smoothing model forecasting, as well as focuses on optimizing characteristics to use the golden section technique. This exponential smoothing approach has been one of the time series forecasting methods that would be used to forecast (Generation Electrical) with in Kurdistan area. The issue that arises with this technique is determining the appropriate parameters to reduce predict inaccuracy. In addition, Data used in this paper are (Generation Electrical) in Kurdistan region for (132) months from 2010 to 2020. The study revealed that such data is trending modeled, indicating that a double exponential smoothing (DES) approach from Brown & Holt can be used with the (Stratigraphic & Minitab) software. There are the same results but the Result of analysis more depend on the R-program. The difference among the forecast findings acquired with optimum parameters as well as the assaying data was utilized to assess the feasibility of the forecast by completing normality and randomness tests. Ultimately, the outcomes of parameterization show that the optimal value of α that in DES Brown is (0.22) as well as the optimal MAPE is 9.23616 percent, whereas in DES Holt the optimal is (0.95) as well as the optimal β is (0.05) via the optimal MAPE of 8.08586 percent. This MAPE of a DES Brown technique is greater than the MAPE of a DES Holt approach. Feasibility experiments revealed that both approaches are capable of predicting. Depending on the value of MAPE as well as evaluation process, DES Holt's was recognized as the main prediction model.

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“…A tendency is a smoothed estimate of average growth at the ending of each period. [1,[3][4][5][6] A basic concept of these technique was illustrated in equation ( 1), ( )…”

Section: Research Methods (Des)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Brown's Linear Exponential Smoothingmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

A Comparison between Brown’s and Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing for Forecasting Applied Generation Electrical Energies in Kurdistan Region

Omer

Blbas

Kadir

2021

Cihan U Erbil SCI J

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“…Fuzzy theory was first published by Zadeh and Goguen [6], [7], [8] which aims to generalize the classical notion of sets (Zimmerman, 2001). Fuzzy time series calculations to determine the length of the interval have been DOI: https://doi.org/10.54732/jeecs.v5i2.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting Number of Legal Violations in Indonesian Sea Using the Fuzzy Double Exponential Smoothing Method

Hozairi

Alim

Lumaksono

et al. 2020

J. Electr. Eng. Comput. Sci.

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Maritime security in Indonesia is an indicator of the success of the Government in managing the sovereignty of the State because two-thirds of Indonesia is sea, so Indonesia is called a maritime country. This study aims to predict the number of law violations in Indonesian seas. Predicting events is a strategic step to set the next security operation strategy. The method used to predict violations of law at sea in Indonesia is Fuzzy Double Exponential Smoothing, the Fuzzy method is used to normalize violation data and the Double Exponential Smoothing method is used to predict future events, a combination of fuzzy and double exponential smoothing methods was developed to improve some previous research which only use exponential smoothing only in making predictions. The data processed is data on violations of law at sea in Indonesia from 1996 to 2019 from the Indonesian Maritime Security Agency. The results obtained from this study are the data smoothing constant value (α = 0.81), the trend smoothing value (γ = 0.08), the mean absolute percentage error value (MAPE = 21.78%) and the root mean value average error (RMSE = 60.72). The results of this study predict that the number of violations of law at sea in Indonesia in 2020 will decrease to 98 cases, this is due to several factors, including the focus of the Government on carrying out security operations in Indonesian seas in an integrated manner involving many institutions. The research contribution can be considered by Indonesian Maritime Security Agency to improve Indonesia's maritime security by involving institutions that have legal authority in Indonesian seas

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Design facility tool for reducing the work posture risk and increasing productivity at batik industry

Karimah

Iftadi

Astuti

2019

AIP Conference Proceedings

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Perbandingan Metode Fuzzy Time Series Hsu Dan Double Exponential Smoothing Pada Peramalan Nilai Tukar Rupiah Terhadap Dolar Amerika

Cited by 4 publications

References 0 publications

A Comparison between Brown’s and Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing for Forecasting Applied Generation Electrical Energies in Kurdistan Region

A Comparison between Brown’s and Holt’s Double Exponential Smoothing for Forecasting Applied Generation Electrical Energies in Kurdistan Region

Forecasting Number of Legal Violations in Indonesian Sea Using the Fuzzy Double Exponential Smoothing Method

Design facility tool for reducing the work posture risk and increasing productivity at batik industry

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