Perceptions and expected immediate reactions to tornado warning polygons

Lindell, Michael K.; Huang, Shaowu; Wei, Hung-Lung; Samuelson, Charles D.

doi:10.1007/s11069-015-1990-5

Cited by 66 publications

(64 citation statements)

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“…The findings from two lab-based studies by Wu et al [37,38] support the finding that people tend to focus on the forecast track, gleaning little information from the rest of the graphic. Other challenges with maps include confusion between probability maps and scenario maps [39] and misjudgment of risk when polygons are used to show risk zones [40,41]. Although people at least sometimes are able to infer that the edge of a polygon does not indicate a divide between an area at risk and an area completely not at risk [38,41], there is some evidence that people infer a higher risk at the center of the polygon [41].…”

Section: Objective Versus Subjective Probability Estimatesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Decision Science Perspectives on Hurricane Vulnerability: Evidence from the 2010–2012 Atlantic Hurricane Seasons

et al. 2018

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Abstract:Although the field has seen great advances in hurricane prediction and response, the economic toll from hurricanes on U.S. communities continues to rise. We present data from Hurricanes Earl (2010), Irene (2011), Isaac (2012), and Sandy (2012 to show that individual and household decisions contribute to this vulnerability. From phone surveys of residents in communities threatened by impending hurricanes, we identify five decision biases or obstacles that interfere with residents' ability to protect themselves and minimize property damage: (1) temporal and spatial myopia, (2) poor mental models of storm risk, (3) gaps between objective and subjective probability estimates, (4) prior storm experience, and (5) social factors. We then discuss ways to encourage better decision making and reduce the economic and emotional impacts of hurricanes, using tools such as decision defaults (requiring residents to opt out of precautions rather than opt in) and tailoring internet-based forecast information so that it is local, specific, and emphasizes impacts rather than probability.

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Section: Objective Versus Subjective Probability Estimatesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Decision Science Perspectives on Hurricane Vulnerability: Evidence from the 2010–2012 Atlantic Hurricane Seasons

et al. 2018

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“…In addition, the third category comprises locations farther outside the polygon. Finally, two of these studies suggest that participants’ p s judgments and emotional reactions are consistent with their behavioral expectations of taking protective action …”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 69%

“…To address this deficiency in the tornado response literature, this study proposes a series of research hypotheses and research questions based on previous tornado warning research and describes an experiment in which participants viewed 23 hypothetical scenarios and then reported their p s judgments and expected responses to those scenarios. To replicate the results of Lindell and et al ., one group of participants viewed scenarios that displayed only a warning polygon. To extend the results of that study, a second group viewed scenarios that displayed a warning polygon and a single tornadic storm cell, whereas a third group viewed scenarios that displayed a warning polygon, a tornadic storm cell, and two flanking nontornadic storm cells.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 93%

“…The most recent study presented 155 participants with 15 different warning polygons . All participants were told that NWS guidance indicates people should take protective action inside—but not outside—the warning polygon and they should imagine they had checked into a motel where they were watching the evening news when they were informed of a tornado warning.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Examination of demographic variables has found that having at least a high school diploma is positively related to responding to a warning message . Females are more likely than males to provide high p s judgments, avoid warning confirmation from environmental cues, and to shelter in safe locations, but there is conflicting evidence on their tendency to seek warning confirmation from social sources. Finally, there is mixed evidence on the effect on tornado warning response of age and race …”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Perceptions and Expected Immediate Reactions to Severe Storm Displays

2017

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The National Weather Service has adopted warning polygons that more specifically indicate the risk area than its previous county-wide warnings. However, these polygons are not defined in terms of numerical strike probabilities (p ). To better understand people's interpretations of warning polygons, 167 participants were shown 23 hypothetical scenarios in one of three information conditions-polygon-only (Condition A), polygon + tornadic storm cell (Condition B), and polygon + tornadic storm cell + flanking nontornadic storm cells (Condition C). Participants judged each polygon's p and reported the likelihood of taking nine different response actions. The polygon-only condition replicated the results of previous studies; p was highest at the polygon's centroid and declined in all directions from there. The two conditions displaying storm cells differed from the polygon-only condition only in having p just as high at the polygon's edge nearest the storm cell as at its centroid. Overall, p values were positively correlated with expectations of continuing normal activities, seeking information from social sources, seeking shelter, and evacuating by car. These results indicate that participants make more appropriate p judgments when polygons are presented in their natural context of radar displays than when they are presented in isolation. However, the fact that p judgments had moderately positive correlations with both sheltering (a generally appropriate response) and evacuation (a generally inappropriate response) suggests that experiment participants experience the same ambivalence about these two protective actions as people threatened by actual tornadoes.

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Trusting Government to Mitigate a New Hazard: The Case of Oklahoma Earthquakes

Murphy¹,

Greer²,

Wu³

2018

Risk Hazard & Crisis Pub Pol

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This paper examines individual-level perceptions of knowledge levels, responsibility, and trust in the government's ability and willingness to mitigate the newfound earthquake hazard in Oklahoma. These earthquakes have increased in number and intensity since 2010 and are largely believed to be a by-product of wastewater injection wells from oil drilling, making them a new, politically complex hazard for residents to navigate. We conducted household level surveys with two communities in Oklahoma to examine the relationship between (a) an individual's belief that state and local government is knowledgeable about the new earthquake hazard; (b) individual perception that state and local government is responsible for protecting them from the earthquake hazard; and (c) their level of trust in state and local government's ability and willingness to mitigate the hazard. We find that individuals who perceive state and local government as more knowledge about the hazard, or more responsible for protecting them from the hazard, have a higher level of trust in government's ability and willingness to mitigate the earthquake hazard. KEY WORDS: hazard management and mitigation, wastewater injection, trust in government 信任政府对新危害采取缓解措施：以俄克拉荷马州地震为例本文针对俄克拉荷马州新发现的地震危害，检验了个人对政府缓解危害的能力和意愿的认识程度、责任以及信任程度的感知。俄克拉荷马州地震数量自2010年以来持续增长，地震强度不断加大，据说很大程度上这是由于石油钻井后废水注入衍生的副产品，因此地震成为当地居民面临的新危害，且该危害具有政治复杂性。笔者在俄克拉荷马州两个社区内实施了家庭调查，试图检验三个方面之间的关系，这三个方面分别是：1.个人相信国家和地方政府对新地震危害掌握了足够多的知识；2.个人感知国家和地方政府有责任保护他们不受地震危害； 3.个人在多大程度上相信国家和地方政府有能力和意愿去缓解危害。研究结果发现，那些认为国家和地方政府了解危害，且有责任保护他们不受危害的个人，更容易相信政府有能力和意愿缓解地震危害。关键词: 危害管理和缓解措施, 废水注入, 对政府的信任 Confiar en el gobierno para mitigar un nuevo peligro: el caso de los terremotos en Oklahoma

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Perceptions and expected immediate reactions to tornado warning polygons

Cited by 66 publications

References 68 publications

Decision Science Perspectives on Hurricane Vulnerability: Evidence from the 2010–2012 Atlantic Hurricane Seasons

Decision Science Perspectives on Hurricane Vulnerability: Evidence from the 2010–2012 Atlantic Hurricane Seasons

Perceptions and Expected Immediate Reactions to Severe Storm Displays

Trusting Government to Mitigate a New Hazard: The Case of Oklahoma Earthquakes

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