Perceptions of risk in motorcyclists: Unrealistic optimism, relative realism and predictions of behaviour

Abstract

In the first phase of a prospective investigation, a national sample of motorcyclists completed a postal questionnaire about their perceptions of risk, their behaviour on the roads and their history of accidents and spills. In the second phase a year later, they reported on their accident history and behaviour over the preceding 12 months. A total of 723 respondents completed both questionnaires. Four sets of findings are reported. First, the group as a whole showed unrealistic optimism: on average, respondents believed themselves to be less at risk than other motorcyclists of an accident needing hospital treatment in the next year. Second, optimism was tempered by 'relative realism', in that respondents who were young and inexperienced saw themselves as more at risk than other motorcyclists, as did riders who reported risky behaviours on the road. Third, there was some evidence of debiasing by personal history, in that having a friend or a relative who had been killed or injured on the roads was associated with perceptions of absolute risk of injury or death--though there were no effects on comparative risk and no effects on any of the judgments of a history of accidents of one's own. Finally, there was good evidence that perceptions of risk predicted subsequent behaviour, though generally in the direction not of precaution adoption but of precaution abandonment: the greater the perceived risk at time 1, the more frequent the risky behaviour at time 2. The implications of the findings are discussed, and possible interpretations are suggested.

Are perceived comparative risks realistic among high‐risk sports participants?

“…Based on the hypothesis that risk sport practitioners' perceived comparative risks would be in some way realistic, we expected that participants who like playing to the limit will be conscious of the risk they take and thus will be likely to assess themselves as being more exposed to the risk of injury than the average sportsman (hlypothesis 4). Finally, in line with studies (e.g., Rutter et al, 1998) who found a positive link betv/een accident history and an increased perceived vulnerability, we expected that past injury episodes will be positively linked with perceived comparative VSI (Hypothesis 5).…”

“…Respondents may also express comparative pessimism, perceiving their own VSI as greater, or their own AMR as lower, than that of others, particularly when they have experienced negative events such as accidents (Rutter, Quine, & Albery, 1998) or when they feel they have little personal control over dangers (Harris, 1996). Since the present study focused on sports that involve varying degrees of risk, which remain uncontrollable, we might expect that comparative optimism will not be prevalent amongst risk sports practitioners.…”

Fears and realisations of employment insecurity

“…Similarly, drivers and motorbike riders under-estimate the chances of having an accident (e.g. Rutter et al, 1998). A prominent explanation is that drivers may suffer from an illusion of control (Weinstein, 1980;1984).…”

Relationships between the motorcyclists’ behavioural perception and their actual behaviour

“…Therefore, generally, riders wear a helmet due to legislative measures, but their personal opinion about the helmet use is questionable. As it turns out, only a few studies examined the use of helmets in conjunction with the riders' personal opinion about the helmets' usefulness (Rutter et al 1998;Pileggi et al 2006;Oginni et al 2007;Germeni et al 2009;Ranney et al 2010). The majority of these studies concluded that riders with no helmets do not truly believe in their protective value.…”