Performance assessment of WRF model in simulating the very severe cyclonic storm “TITLI” in the Bay of Bengal: A case study

Mahala, Biranchi Kumar; Mohanty, Pratap Kumar; Das, Madhabananda; Routray, Aurobinda

doi:10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2019.101106

Cited by 9 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…For all events, RAL2 maximum sustained wind speeds are faster than ERA5 wind speeds (Fig. 4), with median (across all events) ΔERA5 = 35 kn (18 m s −1 ), with the 5 th to 95 th percentiles of the data spanning [10,70] kn ( [5,36] m s −1 ). Comparing IBTrACS, median ΔUS = −6 kn (−3 m s −1 ) and ΔND = 10 kn, (5 m s −1 ).…”

Section: Technical Validationmentioning

confidence: 96%

“…They conclude that the downscaled model significantly improves the spatial distribution of rainfall, maximum vorticity evolution, wind, and temperature profiles for mature phase cyclones. Studies specifically examining the BoB simulations [8][9][10] typically make empirical comparisons of TC simulations at ~10 km resolution against observationally based data, but often with an India-centric domain that contains a larger number of landfalling events. By contrast, in this study we specifically focus on Bangladesh, with simulations at higher resolution.…”

Section: Background and Summarymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…MSLP estimates are comparable across all three datasets. In each case, the comparison is performed over a land-masked longitude-latitude domain that extends [79, 100]°E and [10,25]°N -see Fig. 2.…”

Section: Technical Validationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For minimum MSLP footprints, the 1 st and 5 th percentiles of the 1.5 km data are [50,87] hPa and [10,37] hPa shallower respectively (90% HDI), but note that the equivalent under sampling observed for high percentiles of gust speeds is likely to be prevalent in the low percentiles of MSLP. All other percentiles do not show any robust differences -the 90% HDI ranges [−11, 12] hPa.…”

Section: Dataset Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

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Tropical cyclone simulations over Bangladesh at convection permitting 4.4 km & 1.5 km resolution

et al. 2021

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High resolution simulations at 4.4 km and 1.5 km resolution have been performed for 12 historical tropical cyclones impacting Bangladesh. We use the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting 5th generation Re-Analysis (ERA5) to provide a 9-member ensemble of initial and boundary conditions for the regional configuration of the Met Office Unified Model. The simulations are compared to the original ERA5 data and the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) tropical cyclone database for wind speed, gust speed and mean sea-level pressure. The 4.4 km simulations show a typical increase in peak gust speed of 41 to 118 knots relative to ERA5, and a deepening of minimum mean sea-level pressure of up to −27 hPa, relative to ERA5 and IBTrACS data. The downscaled simulations compare more favourably with IBTrACS data than the ERA5 data suggesting tropical cyclone hazards in the ERA5 deterministic output may be underestimated. The dataset is freely available from 10.5281/zenodo.3600201.

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Section: Technical Validationmentioning

confidence: 96%

Section: Background and Summarymentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Technical Validationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Dataset Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

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Tropical cyclone simulations over Bangladesh at convection permitting 4.4 km & 1.5 km resolution

et al. 2021

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“…When run in uncoupled modes, the wave model can be forced (see Table 6) with ocean currents (obtained from a regional 2021), namely Cyclone Fani (April 2019; pre-monsoon, e.g., Routray et al, 2020;Zhao et al, 2020;Singh et al, 2021) and Cyclone Titli (October 2018; post-monsoon, e.g., Mahala et al, 2019;Maneesha et al, 2021). Here, the performance of a broader range of coupled simulation approaches and configuration options is considered for a single initialisation time to examine the potential diversity of results.…”

Section: Wavewatch III Surface Wave Componentmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Regional Coupled Suite (RCS-IND1): application of a flexible regional coupled modelling framework to the Indian region at km-scale

Castillo

Lewis

Mishra

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Abstract. A new regional coupled modelling framework is introduced – the Regional Coupled Suite (RCS). This provides a flexible research capability with which to study the interactions between atmosphere, land, ocean and wave processes resolved at km-scale, and the effect of environmental feedbacks on the evolution and impacts of multi-hazard weather events. A configuration of the RCS focussed on the Indian region, termed RCS-IND1, is introduced. RCS-IND1 includes a regional configuration of the Unified Model (UM) atmosphere, directly coupled to the JULES land surface model, on a grid with horizontal spacing of 4.4 km, enabling convection to be explicitly simulated. These are coupled through OASIS3-MCT libraries to 2.2 km grid NEMO ocean and WAVEWATCH III wave model configurations. To examine a potential approach to reduce computation cost, and simplify ocean initialisation, the RCS includes an alternative approach to couple the atmosphere to a lower resolution Multi-Column K Profile Parameterization (KPP) for the ocean. Through development of a flexible modelling framework, a variety of fully and partially coupled experiments can be defined, along with traceable uncoupled simulations and options to use external input forcing in place of missing coupled components. This offers a wide scope to researchers designing sensitivity and case study assessments. Case study results are presented and assessed to demonstrate the application of RCS-IND1 to simulate two tropical cyclone cases which developed in the Bay of Bengal, namely Titli in October 2018 and Fani in April 2019. Results show realistic cyclone simulations, and that coupling can improve the cyclone track and produces more realistic intensification than uncoupled simulations for Titli but prevents sufficient intensification for Fani. Atmosphere-only UM regional simulations omit the influence of frictional heating on the boundary layer to prevent cyclone over-intensification. However, it is shown that this term can improve coupled simulations, enabling a more rigorous treatment of the near-surface energy budget to be represented. For these cases, a 1D mixed layer scheme shows similar first-order SST cooling and feedback on the cyclones as a 3D ocean. Nevertheless, the 3D ocean generally shows stronger localised cooling than the 1D ocean. Coupling with the waves have limited feedback on the atmosphere for these cases. Priorities for future model development are discussed.

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Impact of WRF Parameterization Schemes on Track and Intensity of Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm “Fani”

Mahala

Mohanty

Xalxo

et al. 2021

Pure Appl. Geophys.

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Performance assessment of WRF model in simulating the very severe cyclonic storm “TITLI” in the Bay of Bengal: A case study

Cited by 9 publications

References 27 publications

Tropical cyclone simulations over Bangladesh at convection permitting 4.4 km & 1.5 km resolution

Tropical cyclone simulations over Bangladesh at convection permitting 4.4 km & 1.5 km resolution

The Regional Coupled Suite (RCS-IND1): application of a flexible regional coupled modelling framework to the Indian region at km-scale

Impact of WRF Parameterization Schemes on Track and Intensity of Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm “Fani”

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