Performance of Onboard Wake–Vortex Prediction Systems Employing Various Meteorological Data Sources

Sölch, Ingo; Holzäpfel, Frank; Abdelmoula, Fethi; Vechtel, Dennis

doi:10.2514/1.c033732

Cited by 11 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…However, in practice a confidence area that quantifies the probability to encounter any of the two vortices in a 2-dimensional prediction plane at a specific time is required. Previously, such confidence areas have been generated by offline Monte-Carlo Simulations and fitted to elliptic shape in the airborne version of P2P [30]. However, the BMA output consists of PDFs, such that it is straightforward to compute bivariate distributions here instead.…”

Section: Combined Confidence Areas For Vortex Positionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Probabilistic Multimodel Ensemble Wake-Vortex Prediction Employing Bayesian Model Averaging

Körner

Holzäpfel

Sölch

2019

Journal of Aircraft

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This paper investigates the capability of the Multimodel Ensemble approach to improve the deterministic forecast of wake vortex behavior and to produce reliable vortex habition areas. Therefore the models D2P, APA 3.2, APA 3.4, APA 3.8 and TDP 2.1 were provided within the framework of a NASA-DLR cooperation. In a previous study the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) approach, that computes the ensemble forecast as a weighted sum of PDFs, turned out to be promising. For this reason the focus of this paper lies on the further development and assessment of this method. While the previously presented methods did not take into account that the error increases temporally, the new approach considers growing uncertainties. In addition, combined confidence areas for the vertical and lateral vortex position are derived from bivariate probability density distributions. For training and evaluation wake vortex campaigns accomplished by NASA (MEM95, DFW97, DEN03, MEM13) and DLR (WakeMUC, WakeFRA, WakeOP) are employed.

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Section: Combined Confidence Areas For Vortex Positionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Probabilistic Multimodel Ensemble Wake-Vortex Prediction Employing Bayesian Model Averaging

Körner

Holzäpfel

Sölch

2019

Journal of Aircraft

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“…To reduce the risk of wake vortex encounters in-flight, the Wake Encounter Avoidance and Advisory system (WEAA) [45] aims at visualizing the predicted wake vortex position of surrounding aircraft on the navigation display in order to warn the pilots in case of conflict with the planned flight track. The predictions are performed by an airborne version of P2P which employs offline Monte Carlo simulations to accomplish the probabilistic envelopes from which a volume is derived where the vortices are likely to be encountered.…”

Section: Wsvbs Wsvbsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The predictions are performed by an airborne version of P2P which employs offline Monte Carlo simulations to accomplish the probabilistic envelopes from which a volume is derived where the vortices are likely to be encountered. With the meteorological data being crucial to wake vortex forecasts substantial effort is undertaken to derive wind speed, temperature and turbulence from various sources and interpolate them to the flight track of the vortex generating aircraft [45]. During test flights the DLR research aircraft Falcon served as wake-vortex generator, while the DLR A320 ATRA intentionally encountered the vortices at the positions predicted by the WEAA system [45].…”

Section: Wsvbs Wsvbsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…With the meteorological data being crucial to wake vortex forecasts substantial effort is undertaken to derive wind speed, temperature and turbulence from various sources and interpolate them to the flight track of the vortex generating aircraft [45]. During test flights the DLR research aircraft Falcon served as wake-vortex generator, while the DLR A320 ATRA intentionally encountered the vortices at the positions predicted by the WEAA system [45]. Depending on the source of the meteorological input, hit rates between 65% and 90% were achieved.…”

Section: Wsvbs Wsvbsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Multi-model ensemble wake vortex prediction

Körner

Holzäpfel

2016

Aircraft Eng & Aerospace Tech

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Tag der mündlichen Prüfung: 25.07.2017 Diese Dissertation ist auf den Internetseiten der Universitätsbibliothek online verfügbar. Für meinen Großvater. v Eidesstattliche Erklärung Ich versichere hiermit an Eides Statt, dass ich die vorliegende Dissertation mit dem Titel "Multi-Model Ensemble Wake Vortex Prediction" selbstständig und ohne unzulässige fremde Hilfe erbracht habe. Ich habe keine anderen als die angegebenen Quellen und Hilfsmittel benutzt. Für den Fall, dass die Arbeit zusätzlich auf einem Datenträger eingereicht wird, erkläre ich, dass die schriftliche und die elektronische Form vollständigübereinstimmen. Die Arbeit hat in gleicher oderähnlicher Form noch keiner Prüfungsbehörde vorgelegen. Zudem versichere ich Eides statt, dass ich kein erfolgloses Promotionsverfahren bzw. Promotionsstudium zum Dr.-Ing/ Dr.rer.nat. durchgeführt habe. AbstractAs a response to lift, a complex flow pattern is shed from the wings of an aircraft that evolves into a pair of counter-rotating vortices. Their behavior is strongly influenced by the atmosphere and further underlies a complex interaction with the ground. Due to the rolling momentum that the vortices may induce and the forces that they can exert they pose a potential hazard to following air traffic, especially along the glide path and in ground proximity. To avoid dangerous incidents, separation regulations based on aircraft mass exist that is currently under revision in the context of RECAT. However, air traffic is expected to further increase in the future, making wake vortex encounters more likely. For this reason fast-time wake vortex models have been developed in the past that predict the vortex position and strength dependent on the aircraft parameters and the ambient conditions in order to avoid dangerous situations. Furthermore, they may reduce flight delays at congested airports as they allow adapting overly conservative separations tactically under certain conditions. However, forecasts include uncertainties that originate from inaccurate and highly variable initial and ambient conditions as well as from inadequate understanding and simplification of the underlying physics. As a consequence, deterministic forecasts are to be complemented by probabilistic envelopes.In the field of meteorology such envelopes are frequently computed by combining the forecasts of multiple independent models to quantify the model uncertainty. This approach, also known as Multi-Model Ensemble (MME), has not only shown to increase the reliability of the probabilistic forecast but also to enhance its deterministic skill. For this reason the capability of the MME approach to improve both deterministic and probabilistic wake vortex forecasts is assessed and existing approaches are further developed in this thesis. Three of the ensemble members have been provided in the frame of a NASA-DLR cooperation. The employed models comprise APA 3.2, APA 3.4 and TDP 2.1 (NASA) and are combined with the DLR model D2P. Several MME approaches are examined, comprising the Direct Ensemble Average...

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“…Several theoretical studies in the open literature can be found which investigated the generation of wake vortex, the behaviour of aircraft that encounter wake vortices and the adverse effects of wake vortex on flight safety (Höhne, Fuhrmann, & Luckner, 2004;Chernyshev, Gaifullin, & Sviridenko, 2014;Huang, Zhang, & Cui, 2017; Aircraft wake vortex state-of-the-art & research needs, 2015). In addition, there are some studies on prevention of wake vortex encounters through an airborne wake vortex prevention system (Aircraft wake vortex state-of-the-art & research needs, 2015; Sölch et al, 2016) and control of aircraft in the event of wake vortex encounter (Schwarz & Hahn, 2011;Yu, & Zhang, 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Developed Criteria to Improve Pilot Reporting of Airplane Vortex Encounters

Al-Mahadin

Dalkılıç

2020

Aviation

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Leading airplane vortices can be hazardous to following airplanes. The regulated minimum separations between following and leading airplanes are sometimes overjudged, hence causing reduction in the capacity of airports. In other instances, they are underjudged and subsequently causing airplane incidences. A vital contribution to the establishment and adjustment of vortex-related minimum airplane separations rely on the identification of vortex encounters through pilot reporting with a manual analysis of flight data from FDRs (flight data recorders). This current process relies on judgment of both the pilot and the airline analysist. Hence, it is subjective and sometimes lacks the required accuracy. Therefore, it is desirable to set a number of criteria, which can be utilized to evaluate the accuracy of wake vortex encounter identification. These criteria can save time, and are both accurate and simple. This study investigates 54 pilot reports of flight events to establish a set of criteria that enable concerned aviation organizations to confirm airplane vortex encounters with higher accuracy. This also helps airlines and aviation stakeholders to introduce new regulations and enhancements such as pilots and FDR analysts training on vortex identification. Such measures will enhance safety, improve aviation operation efficiency and allow revision of vortex-separation regulations.

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Performance of Onboard Wake–Vortex Prediction Systems Employing Various Meteorological Data Sources

Cited by 11 publications

References 23 publications

Probabilistic Multimodel Ensemble Wake-Vortex Prediction Employing Bayesian Model Averaging

Probabilistic Multimodel Ensemble Wake-Vortex Prediction Employing Bayesian Model Averaging

Multi-model ensemble wake vortex prediction

Developed Criteria to Improve Pilot Reporting of Airplane Vortex Encounters

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