Persistence and spatial–temporal variability of drought severity in Iran

Noorisameleh, Zahra; Gough, William A.; Mirza, M. Monirul Qader

doi:10.1007/s11356-021-14100-4

Cited by 12 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 72 publications

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“…El Niño is global climate variability, which decreases rainfall in most parts of Indonesia (Hendrawan et al, 2019;Kurniadi et al, 2021;Supari et al, 2018), including Timor. El Niño events then indirectly escalated the drought severity (Cunha et al, 2018;Noorisameleh et al, 2021).…”

Section: Influence Of El Niño On Drought Frequency a Annual Drought E...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Drought Events in Western Part of Timor Island Indonesia

et al. 2022

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Drought is a below-averaged condition of water availability, which has detrimental impacts on many sectors. Many studies have been performed on drought analysis in Indonesia, yet knowledge about drought in western Timor is still limited. This research carried out a historical meteorological drought analysis based on a 3-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) using global climate data for 1989-2018. The index value was then categorized into three groups: moderate, severe, and extreme. We assessed: (i) the influence of El Niño phenomena to drought events, (ii) drought class frequency, and (iii) drought trend. Based on historical data, western Timor had a monsoonal pattern with dominant dry period, which occurred in April to November. The results showed that the drought events were mostly influenced by El Niño. Seasonally, El Niño not only increased the drought frequency in July-August (JJA) season, but also in other seasons. In El Niño year of 2015, drought covered most parts of study area during September-November (SON) season, especially in the western part. Dry conditions increased in June, reached maximum in September-November, and decreased in December. Other findings show that an extreme drought consistently had a downtrend, while the moderate drought had upward trends. Spatiotemporal drought analysis using SPI and SPEI showed similar patterns, SPEI detected a higher frequency of drought classes compared to SPI. This study suggests that knowledge on drought-related El Niño will benefit on drought mitigation action in the future.

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Section: Influence Of El Niño On Drought Frequency a Annual Drought E...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Drought Events in Western Part of Timor Island Indonesia

et al. 2022

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“…Furthermore, it exhibits substantial spatial and temporal variability in various climates and regions. Several authors have proposed various procedures and frameworks to address the spatial and temporal variability of drought events [15][16][17][18][19][20]. However, it is considered a highly variable complicated phenomenon, and it is challenging to discover its onset and termination periods [21][22][23][24].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Characterization of Meteorological Drought Using Monte Carlo Feature Selection and Steady‐State Probabilities

et al. 2022

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Drought is a creeping phenomenon that slowly holds an area over time and can be continued for many years. The impacts of drought occurrences can affect communities and environments worldwide in several ways. Thus, assessment and monitoring of drought occurrences in a region are crucial for reducing its vulnerability to the negative impacts of drought. Therefore, comprehensive drought assessment techniques and methods are required to develop adaptive strategies that a region can undertake to reduce its vulnerability to drought substantially. For this purpose, this study proposes a new method known as a regional comprehensive assessment of meteorological drought (RCAMD). The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and Standardized Precipitation and Temperature Index (SPTI) are jointly used for the development of the RCAMD. Further, the RCAMD employs Monte Carlo feature selection (MCFS) and steady-state probabilities (SSPs) to comprehensively collect information from various stations and drought indices. Moreover, the RCAMD is validated on the six selected stations in the northern areas of Pakistan. The outcomes associated with the RCAMD provide a comprehensive regional assessment of meteorological drought and become the initial source for bringing more considerations to drought monitoring and early warning systems.

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“…Extraction and monitoring of drought characteristics are a necessity in crisis management of this risk (IPCC 2012). Frequency, severity, duration, and persistence (Amrit et al 2018 andNoorisameleh et al 2021) of droughts are the most important factors in understanding their nature and have been explored by applying various methods. For example, in the last decade, the copula model has been used to study droughts (Yusof et al 2013) and the comparison of drought characteristics (Wong et al 2013).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparison of the temporal distribution pattern of precipitation and the cumulative effect of daily droughts on the local scale in Iran

2021

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The environmental effects of drought appear to be substantial. At local scales, even small areas can have diverse climates due to their geographical location. This study compares the cumulative effect of daily droughts from 1989 to 2019 using daily precipitation data from nine synoptic stations in the Tehran Province, Iran. The Effective Drought Index (EDI), the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), and the China Z-Index (CZI) have been applied to calculate droughts. Initially, we have determined drought characteristics (severity, frequency, and duration) using the run theory. Later, the copula models (Frank, Gaussian, and Gumbel) have been used to find dependence between drought characteristics at different time scales as a cumulative effect. The results show that a pattern of the number and order of temporal distribution variables of precipitation play a major role in intensifying droughts. Also, the findings indicate that the frequency-duration of daily droughts in semi-arid and mountainous stations located in the north of the province has a cumulative effect on monthly and annual droughts. The severity frequency of daily droughts affects long-term droughts in the stations located in the middle and south of the province characterized by a drier climate. The variability in the intensity and shift of daily droughts in the mountainous stations is higher compared to other areas but it decreases on monthly and annual scales. This study found that the copula model is an ideal tool to demonstrate regional differences of drought in the regions with climatic and geographical diversity.

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Persistence and spatial–temporal variability of drought severity in Iran

Cited by 12 publications

References 72 publications

Drought Events in Western Part of Timor Island Indonesia

Drought Events in Western Part of Timor Island Indonesia

Characterization of Meteorological Drought Using Monte Carlo Feature Selection and Steady‐State Probabilities

Comparison of the temporal distribution pattern of precipitation and the cumulative effect of daily droughts on the local scale in Iran

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