We report 4 experiments investigating auditory hindsight bias -the tendency to overestimate the intelligibility of distorted auditory stimuli after learning their identity. An associative priming manipulation was used to vary the amount of processing fluency independently of prior target knowledge. For hypothetical designs, in which hindsight judgments are made for peers in foresight, we predicted that judgments would be based on processing fluency and that hindsight bias would be greater in the unrelated-compared to related-prime context (differential-fluency hypothesis). Conversely, for memory designs, in which foresight judgments are remembered in hindsight, we predicted that judgments would be based on memory reconstruction and that there would be independent effects of prime relatedness and prior target knowledge (recollection hypothesis). These predictions were confirmed.Specifically, we found support for the differential-fluency hypothesis when a hypothetical design was used in Experiments 1 and 2 (hypothetical group). Conversely, when a memory design was used in Experiments 2 (memory group), 3A and 3B, we found support for the recollection hypothesis. Together, the results suggest that qualitatively different mechanisms create hindsight bias in the two designs. The results are discussed in terms of fluency misattributions, memory reconstruction, anchoring-and-adjustment, sense making, and a multi-component model of hindsight bias.Keywords: auditory hindsight bias, fluency attributions, hypothetical design, memory design, associative priming AUDITORY HINDSIGHT BIAS 3
Statement of the Public Significance of the WorkThis study was aimed at uncovering the basic cognitive mechanisms of auditory hindsight bias, the finding that people informed about the content of a distorted audio signal prior to hearing it subsequently overestimate how objectively intelligible the signal actually is. The study suggests that the bias is not produced by a unitary cognitive mechanism, but is based on different mechanisms depending on whether one focuses on the past (i.e., trying to remember how intelligible a signal seemed earlier before learning the content) or on a hypothetical scenario (i.e., estimating how intelligible the signal would be for naïve others who are unaware of the content). Specifically, in the context of remembering, knowledge of content can distort how memories are reconstructed. Alternatively, in a hypothetical scenario, knowledge of content enhances perception of the signal which is not properly discounted when estimating for naïve others.
AUDITORY HINDSIGHT BIAS 4Auditory Hindsight Bias:
Fluency Misattributions versus Memory ReconstructionHindsight bias is a common judgment error that occurs when people who are knowledgeable of an outcome overestimate its probability. For example, the attacks on the World Trade Center in 2001 might seem predictable to most of us now even though, prior to the attacks, many people did not expect them. Hindsight bias, first documented by Fischhoff in the 1970s (e.g.,...