Pest Risk Assessment of Aeolesthes sarta (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) in Pakistan under Climate Change Scenario

Hayat, Umer; Akram, Muhammad; Kour, Sarabdeep; Arif, Tahreem; Shi, Juan

doi:10.3390/f14020253

Cited by 5 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…More recently, two climate change scenarios were included in the pest risk assessment of Trirachys sartus (syn. Aeolesthes sarta ) in Pakistan using the CLIMEX model (Hayat et al., 2023). Future climatic data were made available based on two global circulation models.…”

Section: How Is Climate Change Currently Incorporated Into Risk Asses...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Including climate change in pest risk assessment: Current practices and perspectives for future implementation

Rosace,

Björklund,

Boberg

et al. 2024

EPPO Bulletin

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The evaluation of the potential for newly arrived species to survive and the determination whether a founder population can become established and subsequently spread and cause negative impacts are crucial considerations when performing a pest risk assessment in plant health. Climate change has clear consequences concerning the potential range of pests, and their potential for spread and impacts. Despite its importance, no guidance exists to support the evaluation of whether and how climate change should be incorporated into pest risk assessment. This paper reviews how climate change has been considered so far, not only in the area of pest risk assessment but also in other domains and provides guidance on how its incorporation could affect the overall assessment. Furthermore, from this analysis, some possible solutions for incorporating climate change into pest risk assessment are provided, taking into account that its outcomes have profound political, economic, social and environmental implications.

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Section: How Is Climate Change Currently Incorporated Into Risk Asses...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Including climate change in pest risk assessment: Current practices and perspectives for future implementation

Rosace,

Björklund,

Boberg

et al. 2024

EPPO Bulletin

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

Section: Ei > 30mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Known species distribution data along with laboratory-derived ecological data were used to parameterize the model [6,7,10,19,[31][32][33][34][35][36]. The parameters were iteratively adjusted according to the satisfactory agreement between the potential and known global distribution of A. sarta and P. alba [31,37]. The parameters were then verified by comparing the physiological and ecological data of A. sarta and P. alba to ensure they were biologically and ecologically reasonable.…”

Section: Ei > 30mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For forecasting, we used A1B (2.8 • C rise in global temperature) and A2 (3.4 • C rise in global temperature) as per the Special Report on climate change scenarios (SRES) [39]. [4,6,7,10,19,[31][32][33][34][35][36]. When published research papers did not provide precise geographic coordinates for positive sites, the coordinates for the site were pinpointed using Google Earth (https://www.google.com/earth/ accessed on 10 February 2023) and Google Maps (https://www.google.com/maps/preview accessed on 10 February 2023).…”

Section: Climatic Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, these values did not predict A. sarta's occurrence in northern India, China, and Afghanistan. Hence, DV0, DV1, and DV2 were adjusted to 10 • C, 15 • C, and 37 • C [31] to include positive sites in Northern India, China, and Afghanistan and were finalized to forecast the potential distribution globally. The population day degree (PDD) value for A. sarta was set to be 700 [12,31], as it completes its lifecycle in almost two years [4,6,10,19].…”

Section: Pest (Aelosthes Sarta) Biological Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

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Assessing the Global Pest Risk of Aeolesthes sarta with Regards to the Host Specie Populus alba under Climate Change Scenarios

Hayat

Kour

Akram

et al. 2023

Forests

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Aeolesthes sarta or Trirachys sarta is a polyphagous long-horned beetle that has caused severe damage to the Populus alba forests/plantations in its regions of origin. Climate change could accelerate the introduction and spread of invasive pest species, potentially causing ecological damage and economic losses. Furthermore, globalization and increased trade can inadvertently transport pests across borders into regions where they do not already occur. Hence, it is crucial to identify areas where the climate is most suitable for the establishment of A. sarta’s and which areas of the world are suitable for the growth of P. alba under climate change scenarios. This study employed the CLIMEX model to estimate the potential global distribution of A. sarta and its correlation with its dominant host, P. alba, under current climatic conditions and potential future scenarios, namely the A1B and A2 climate change scenarios (CCSs). Under current climatic conditions, the model indicates that the establishment of a climatically suitable habitat for A. sarta extends beyond its current known range. The model estimated that, under the world’s current climatic conditions, 41.06% of the world can provide suitable areas (EI > 0) for the survival of A. sarta. For P. alba, under the current climatic conditions, suitable regions for the growth of P. alba are present in all continents (excluding Antarctica); under the world’s current climatic conditions, 53.52% of the world can provide suitable areas for the growth of P. alba (EI > 0). Climate change will significantly alter the number of suitable habitats for A. sarta development and P. alba growth globally. In future climatic conditions, the number areas capable of supplying suitable habitats (EI > 0) for A. sarta will slightly decrease to 40.14% (under A1B and A2 CCSs), while, for P. alba, the number areas capable of supplying suitable habitats will also marginally decrease to 50.39% (under A1B scenario), and this figure is estimated to drop to 48.41% (under A2 scenario) by the end century (2100). Asia, Europe, North America, South America, and Oceania have a high percentage of highly suitable areas for A. sarta development and P. alba growth under current climatic conditions; however, according to estimates of future climatic conditions, by the end century, only Asia, Europe, North America, and Oceania will have a high percentage of highly suitable areas for A. sarta development and P. alba growth. The range of highly suitable habitats is likely to increase in the northern hemisphere; however, this range is expected to shrink with regards to the southern hemisphere. The range contraction was higher under the A2 climate change scenario due to a higher warming trend than in the A1B scenario. Due to climate change, the range of A. sarta development shifted, as did the P. alba growth range, which, thanks to the suitable environmental conditions for the growth of P. alba, makes all those regions vulnerable to the introduction and development of A. sarta. Strict monitoring, prevention, and control measures at borders, airports, and seaports before the trade of P. alba and other suitable host species wood (logs/billets) are highly recommended to prevent the spread of A. sarta and ensure biodiversity security. It is expected that the A. sarta and P. alba climate models presented here will be useful for management purposes since both can be adapted to guide decisions about imparting resources to regions where the threat of pest invasion remains and away from regions where climate suitability is predicted to decrease in the future.

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Public Attitudes towards Forest Pest Damage Cost and Future Control Extent: A Case Study from Two Cities of Pakistan

Hayat,

Abbas,

Shi

2024

Forests

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Infestations of pests are perhaps an anthropogenic catastrophe for trees. Aeolesthes sarta (Sart longhorned beetle—SLB) is one of the most severe pests that cause serious damage to a number of hardwood tree species, i.e., Populus, Salix, Acer, Juglans, and Malus. To investigate people’s attitudes towards pest damage cost and future control extent of SLB, a door-to-door method was adopted to survey two major cities (Quetta—QU and Peshawar—PE) of the northwestern region of Pakistan where this pest has caused severe damage. Respondents were asked about SLB pest knowledge, pest damage costs, preferences for control choices, and program extent. According to respondents, more trees (181 ± 1.20 trees/ha/annum) were damaged in QU compared to PE. Populus spp. was the dominant tree genre that attacked and damaged the most. Around 85% of respondents from both cities stated the pest damage cost was calculated as high for QU (480,840.80 ± 4716.94$/annum) compared to PE. Respondents in both locations strongly supported (more than 82%) biological control of future SLB outbreaks. They all agreed that protecting ecologically vulnerable places and wildlife habitats should be the primary priority in a future SLB outbreak. Respondents from both cities who preferred to protect more land area in future SLB outbreaks were calculated to be high for QU (61%) compared to PE (58%). However, city variations in opinions regarding forest-type priority that should be protected and control options were observed. Socio-demographic characteristics were discovered to impact pest damage cost positively, as well as preferred SLB control extent. The findings of this study can help policymakers and forest managers develop publicly permissible pest control plans and make more accurate predictions about future pest outbreaks.

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Pest Risk Assessment of Aeolesthes sarta (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) in Pakistan under Climate Change Scenario

Cited by 5 publications

References 35 publications

Including climate change in pest risk assessment: Current practices and perspectives for future implementation

Including climate change in pest risk assessment: Current practices and perspectives for future implementation

Assessing the Global Pest Risk of Aeolesthes sarta with Regards to the Host Specie Populus alba under Climate Change Scenarios

Public Attitudes towards Forest Pest Damage Cost and Future Control Extent: A Case Study from Two Cities of Pakistan

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