Phasic containment of COVID-19 in substantially affected states of India

Mandal, Manisha; Mandal, Shyamapada

doi:10.1101/2020.05.05.20092130

Cited by 3 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 7 publications

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“…Originally, this method was employed for comprehensive CFR estimation of COVID-19, by Yang, et al [11], and later by Oztoprak, et al [12], in order to re lect the good estimates of CFRs for different countries. Herein, the estimated CFR for the world (excluding China) and for the countries outside China is similar: 6.81% (by WHO estimates) and ~13% (by 14-day delay estimates), suggesting that the global (excluding China) situation is reasonably scary, considering the fact that China, so far, has effectively controlled the disease (COVID-19), which was caused by the novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, for which there are no speci ic medicine as well as vaccine [16,17], and therefore, the non-pharmaceutical measures remain the only options for COVID-19 management [18][19][20]. As per the current report the average CFR of COVID-19 in China was 6.1% that alleviated to 5.7% in April, while the value was recorded as 1% in China excluding Hubei province [21].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating global case fatality rate of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic

Mandal¹,

Mandal²

2020

Int J Clin Microbiol Biochem Technol

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Case fatality rate; Global including china; Global excluding china OPEN ACCESS CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2) [1]. Notably, the COVID-19 was irst seen in December 2019, in Wuhan of Hubei province, China, among a cluster of people linked to the Huanan seafood market, and was emerged zoonotically with a single spillover from animals [2], probably from bat reservoir as had been seen for two other coronaviruses: SARS-CoV (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus) emerged in the Guangdong province, China in 2002, and MERS-CoV (Middle East respiratory syndrome) that emerged in the Arabian Peninsula in 2012, causing SARS and MERS, respectively [3,4].

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating global case fatality rate of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic

Mandal¹,

Mandal²

2020

Int J Clin Microbiol Biochem Technol

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Herein, the estimated CFR for the world (excluding China) and for the countries outside China is similar: 6.81% (by WHO estimates) and ~13% (by 14-day delay estimates), suggesting that the global (excluding China) situation is reasonably scary, considering the fact that China, so far, has effectively controlled the disease (COVID-19), which was caused by the novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, for which there are no speci c medicine as well as vaccine 16,17 , and therefore, the non-pharmaceutical measures remain the only options for COVID-19 management. [18][19][20] While China has contained the COVID-19 pandemic it is escalating in rest of the world, however, the disease severity has been improved with a reduction of CFR from 7.04% (on May 2, 2020) to 5.9% (on June 6, 2020), and the value was decreased to 4.78% during May 2, 2020 to June 6, 2020, compared to the value of 6.81% estimated during February 8, 2020 to April 25, 2020, following regression model analysis.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating global case fatality rate of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic

Mandal

2020

Preprint

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There is a huge loss of lives worldwide in relation to COVID-19 pandemic, the primary epicentre of which is China, where the causative agent of the disease called SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2) was first emerged in December 2019. In view of this the severity, in terms of case fatality rate (CFR), is essential to explore for COVID-19. Data of ongoing COVID-19 global pandemic have been retrieved from publicly accessible website of the WHO (World Health Organization), and were processed for the estimation of global (both including and excluding China) CFRs of COVID-19. The CFRs were explored following the naive estimates, 14-day delay estimates, and linear regression model analysis, for the period between January 25, 2020 and April 25, 2020, on weekly basis. To explore the current situation, in terms of global CFR, data for the next 6 weeks (May 2, 2020 through June 6, 2020), were processed by naive and linear regression model analysis. Mean CFRs, in the naive estimates, were 4.59% (95% CI: 3.59 – 5.59) for the world including China, and 3.62% (95% CI: 2.01 – 5.23) for the world excluding China. The 14-day delay estimates of CFRs were 15.6% (95% CI: 7.18 – 24.02) globally, and 21.65% (95% CI: 11.15 – 32.15) in countries outside China. Following statistical model analysis, the global (both including and excluding China) CFRs were 6.81%, by naive estimates, and ~13%, by 14-day delay estimates. The global CFR of COVID-19 during May 2, 2020 to June 6, 2020, ranged 5.9 – 7.04% (mean: 6.58%; 95% CI: 6.11 – 7.03), by naive estimates, and by statistical regression analysis the CFR was 4.78%. The CFR as explored in the current study might help estimate the need of up-to-date hospital supplies and other mitigation measures for COVID-19 ongoing pandemic.

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“…Alongside the reproduction number that determines the transmissibility of SARS-COV-2, CFR (case fatality rate) represents one of the most vital factors in demonstrating the severity of this novel infectious disease, critical for policy decisions on optimal healthcare facility allotment. Currently, as of May 10, 2020, based upon the total deaths as the numerator and the total confirmed cases as the denominator, also known as confirmed CFR (cCFR) of COVID-19 was 7% globally, while the highest cCFR of 14.78% was noted for the United Kingdom, which were much higher compared to that demonstrated for India (3.35%-3.11%) [6,7]. When the pandemic is still ongoing, the cCFR, is presumed to be an overvaluation of disease severity likely due to low detection of asymptomatic cases and underestimation of CFR due to the right-censoring of cases related to the time delay from symptom onset to death [8].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating COVID-19 pandemic severity in Indian context

Mandal¹,

Mandal²

2020

Preprint

Self Cite

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The case fatality rate (CFR) represents one of the most vital factors in demonstrating the severity of novel infectious disease, COVID-19. Various estimates of COVID-19 fatalities (based on the publicly and published information and data in Indian context of COVID-19): confirmed CFR, asymptomatic CFR, symptomatic CFR, and hospitalized CFR were 2.32% (2.05-2.59), 0.14% (0.12-0.16), 0.32% (0.27-0.36), 1.86% (1.64-2.07) respectively. The relative susceptibility of developing symptoms (RSODS) and relative susceptibility of developing infection (RSODI) of COVID-19 were ~33 times higher among people aged <45 years. The RSODS estimates were 1.97 (0.47-3.47), 0.62 (0.15-1.09), 0.29 (0.07-0.52), 0.06 (0.02-0.10) respectively, for patients <45 years, 45-60, 60-75, >75 years. Similar trend, for RSODI were found, with relatively higher value, compared to RSODS, which decreased with the increase of age. The 14-day lag estimate of CFR were 18.07 (15.67-20.47), and outcome (deaths plus recoveries)-based estimate of CFR were 16.57 (14.65-18.49). The growth rate, serial interval, reproduction number and average time from onset of COVID-19 infection to death were 6.12% (5.30%-6.99%), 11.4 days (9.91-12.85), 1.03 (1.01-1.05), and 11.85 days (10.55-13.15), respectively. Among 1,673,688 samples tested, 62,939 (3.76%) were positive for COVID-19 accounting 1,228 tests per million population of India, as of May 10, 2020. The average daily recovery was 19.45% (14.75- 24.15) and average cumulative recovery was 12.68% (10.70- 14.66) among COVID-19 patients. As per our belief and knowledge, this is the first study of its kind in reporting COVID-19 severity in Indian context during pandemic.

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Phasic containment of COVID-19 in substantially affected states of India

Cited by 3 publications

References 7 publications

Estimating global case fatality rate of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic

Estimating global case fatality rate of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic

Estimating global case fatality rate of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic

Estimating COVID-19 pandemic severity in Indian context

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