Phenological synchronization drives demographic rates of populations

Rasmussen, Nick L.; Rudolf, Volker H. W.

doi:10.1890/14-1919.1

Cited by 26 publications

(42 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…Second, mean and synchrony may have additive effects. Previous work has shown higher survival for high‐synchrony populations relative to low‐synchrony populations (Rasmussen and Rudolf ). If the effects of mean and synchrony are additive, we would then expect to see higher survival of high‐synchrony populations across a range of relative arrival times (e.g., survival of the orange population would increase moving down columns and across rows to the left in Fig.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 88%

“…However, individuals within a species vary in their timing, creating a distribution of phenologies for a given life‐history event at the population level (hereafter phenological synchrony; Miller‐Rushing et al. , Rasmussen and Rudolf ). Importantly, the shape of this phenological distribution can change among years and is closely tied to changing weather patterns, including climate change (Wolkovich et al.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Shifts in phenological mean and synchrony interact to shape competitive outcomes

Carter

Rudolf

2019

Ecology

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Climate change–induced phenological shifts are ubiquitous and have the potential to disrupt natural communities by changing the timing of species interactions. Shifts in first and/or mean phenological date are well documented, but recent studies indicate that shifts in synchrony (individual variation around these metrics) can be just as common. However, we know little about how both types of phenological shifts interact to affect species interactions and communities. Here, we experimentally manipulated the hatching phenologies of two competing species of larval amphibians to address this conceptual gap. Specifically, we manipulated the relative mean hatching time (early, same, or late relative to competitor) and population synchrony (high, medium, or low levels of variation around the mean) in a full 3 × 3 factorial design to measure independent and interactive effects of phenological mean and population phenological synchrony on competitive outcomes. Our results indicate that phenological synchrony within a population strongly influences intraspecific competition by changing the density of individuals and relative strength of early‐ vs. late‐arriving individuals. Individuals from high‐synchrony populations competed symmetrically, whereas individuals from low‐synchrony populations competed asymmetrically. At the community scale, shifts in population phenological synchrony interact with shifts in phenological mean to affect key demographic rates (survival, biomass export, per capita mass, and emergence timing) strongly. Furthermore, changes in mean timing of species interactions altered phenological synchrony within a population at the next life stage, and phenological synchrony at one life stage altered the mean timing of the next life stage. Thus, shifts in phenological synchrony within populations cannot only alter species interactions, but species interactions in turn can also drive shifts in phenology.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 88%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Shifts in phenological mean and synchrony interact to shape competitive outcomes

Carter

Rudolf

2019

Ecology

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“…Each experimental unit received three dragonflies belonging to one of these three size classes. Following the methods of Rasmussen et al (), we controlled for density instead of biomass for three reasons: (1) we were interested in per capita, not per unit biomass, effects; (2) we anticipated that dragonfly survival would be high regardless of initial size; and (3) we expected that small dragonflies would catch up in size to large ones over time because small/young dragonflies grow faster than larger/older ones. If our assumptions about dragonflies held (they did, see ), then controlling for density would result in similar densities and biomasses across treatments over the duration of the experiment.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Individual and combined effects of two types of phenological shifts on predator–prey interactions

Rasmussen

Rudolf

2016

Ecology

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Timing of phenological events varies among years with natural variation in environmental conditions and is also shifting in response to climate change. These phenological shifts likely have many effects on species interactions. Most research on the ecological consequences of phenological shifts has focused on variation in simple metrics such as phenological firsts. However, for a population, a phenological event exhibits a temporal distribution with many attributes that can vary (e.g., mean, variance, skewness), each of which likely has distinct effects on interactions. In this study, we manipulated two attributes of the phenological distribution of a prey species to determine their individual and combined effects on predator-prey interactions. Specifically, we studied how shifts in the mean and variation around the mean (i.e., synchrony) of hatching by tadpoles (Hyla cinerea) affected interactions with predatory dragonfly naiads (Tramea carolina). At the end of larval development, we quantified survival and growth of predator and prey. We found that both types of shifts altered demographic rates of the prey; that the effects of synchrony shifts, though rarely studied, were at least as strong as those due to mean shifts; and that the combined effects of shifts in synchrony and mean were additive rather than synergistic. By dissecting the roles of two types of shifts, this study represents a significant step toward a comprehensive understanding of the complex effects of phenological shifts on species interactions. Embracing this complexity is critical for predicting how climate change will alter community dynamics.

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“…), and the role of intraspecific priority effects in shaping life‐history strategies has received less attention (but see, e.g. Hopper, Crowley & Kielman ; Eitam, Blaustein & Mangel ; Rasmussen & Rudolf ; and theoretical models by De Meester et al . ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Alford & Wilbur ; Lawler & Morin ; Hernandez & Chalcraft ). In seasonal environments, early breeding species often have an advantage over late breeders, negatively affecting the time and size at metamorphosis – key fitness determinants in many amphibians (Earl & Whiteman ) – of the later (Alford & Wilbur ; Wilbur & Alford ; Ryan & Plague ; Eitam, Blaustein & Mangel ; Rasmussen & Rudolf ). Early breeding normally leads to early metamorphosis, which together with an increase in the density of predators as season advances (Vitt & Caldwell ), should select for early spawning in temperate frogs, even when considering the potential costs.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Intraspecific priority effects modify compensatory responses to changes in hatching phenology in an amphibian

Murillo-Rincón

Kolter

Laurila

et al. 2016

Journal of Animal Ecology

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Summary1. In seasonal environments, modifications in the phenology of life-history events can alter the strength of time constraints experienced by organisms. Offspring can compensate for a change in timing of hatching by modifying their growth and development trajectories. However, intra-and interspecific interactions may affect these compensatory responses, in particular if differences in phenology between cohorts lead to significant priority effects (i.e. the competitive advantage that early-hatching individuals have over late-hatching ones). 2. Here, we conducted a factorial experiment to determine whether intraspecific priority effects can alter compensatory phenotypic responses to hatching delay in a synchronic breeder by rearing moor frog (Rana arvalis) tadpoles in different combinations of phenological delay and food abundance. 3. Tadpoles compensated for the hatching delay by speeding up their development, but only when reared in groups of individuals with identical hatching phenology. In mixed phenology groups, strong competitive effects by non-delayed tadpoles prevented the compensatory responses and delayed larvae metamorphosed later than in single phenology treatments. Nondelayed individuals gained advantage from developing with delayed larvae by increasing their developmental and growth rates as compared to single phenology groups. 4. Food shortage prolonged larval period and reduced mass at metamorphosis in all treatments, but it did not prevent compensatory developmental responses in larvae reared in single phenology groups. 5. This study demonstrates that strong intraspecific priority effects can constrain the compensatory growth and developmental responses to phenological change, and that priority effects can be an important factor explaining the maintenance of synchronic life histories (i.e. explosive breeding) in seasonal environments.

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Phenological synchronization drives demographic rates of populations

Cited by 26 publications

References 24 publications

Shifts in phenological mean and synchrony interact to shape competitive outcomes

Shifts in phenological mean and synchrony interact to shape competitive outcomes

Individual and combined effects of two types of phenological shifts on predator–prey interactions

Intraspecific priority effects modify compensatory responses to changes in hatching phenology in an amphibian

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