Phenological trends in southern Spain: A response to climate change

Garcı́a-Mozo, Herminia; Mestre, Antonio; Galán, Carmen

doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2010.01.023

Cited by 114 publications

(75 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…As a consequence, there is a reduction in the gas exchanges (transpiration and CO 2 assimilation for photosynthesis). Additionally, high temperatures, above 35 ºC (Wrege et al, 2015), in the flowering period, more precisely in the beginning of the flowering, from early August to late September (Oliveira et al, 2012), are harmful to the olive crop, because they cause flower abortion (García-Mozo et al, 2010). García-Mozo et al (2010) evaluated phenological tendencies in Southern Spain in response to climate changes and observed that the increase in mean annual temperature also damages pollination, shortens the duration of the flowering and fruiting stages (Tanasijevic et al, 2014) and increases the respiration of the cell tissue (Taiz & Zeiger, 2009), particularly in plants with C 3 metabolism like olive, leading to lower yield.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In general, the models project, for the end of the century, a warmer climate, of up to 5 ºC in Northern Minas Gerais, and heterogeneous tendencies in rainfall with projections of reduction in the Northern regions of the state and a slight increase in Central and South regions (IPCC, 2013). Alterations in the climatic patterns can impact and even make unviable the cultivation of olive, especially due to the modifications in the patterns of evapotranspiration and water balance, such as alterations in physiological and phenological responses and duration of development stages (García-Mozo et al, 2010;Moriondo et al, 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Studies on climate changes and on their impact on olive cultivation have been conducted in various countries (García-Mozo et al, 2010;Tanasivejic et al, 2014). However, in Brazil, especially in Minas Gerais, which has had strong investment in olive cultivation, there is no such type of information.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Impacts of climate projections on water balance and implications on olive crop in Minas Gerais

Santos

Martins

Torres

2017

Rev. bras. eng. agríc. ambient.

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Minas Gerais is vulnerable to climate change, with negative impacts on water balance and changes in the cultivation of several crops. Currently, the olive crop has been an alternative source for farmers, especially those in the South of the state. However, there is no information on areas with climatic conditions suitable for olive cultivation, as well as the possible impacts of climate change. The aim of this study was to verify the impact of climate projections on water balance and agroclimatic zoning for olive cultivation in the Minas Gerais, based on current climate conditions (1980-2011), and different climate change projections for three future periods (2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100). For the current climate, Minas Gerais showed 37% of suitable area, 15% of marginal area and 48% of unsuitable area for olive cultivation. For the period 2071-2100, only 4% was classified as suitable area, 6% as marginal area and 90% as unsuitable. Projections of climate change, of both temperature and rainfall, will affect the olive cultivation, substantially reducing the suitable area in the entire state.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impacts of climate projections on water balance and implications on olive crop in Minas Gerais

Santos

Martins

Torres

2017

Rev. bras. eng. agríc. ambient.

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“…Various aspects of olive tree response to global warming have been modelled for the Mediterranean Basin including flowering and other phenological stages (e.g., Osborne et al, 2000;De Melo-Abreu et al, 2004;García-Mozo et al, 2010), insect damage and olive yields (Ponti et al, 2014), and crop evapotranspiration (Tanasijevic et al, 2014). It has been estimated that only fairly large changes in temperature (i.e., an increase of 3°C) would lead to a significant increase in abnormal flowering events for Spanish and Portuguese sites (De Melo-Abreu et al, 2004).…”

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confidence: 99%

Evaluation of olive flowering at low latitude sites in Argentina using a chilling requirement model

Aybar

Melo-Abreu

Searles

et al. 2015

Span. j. agric. res.

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Olive production has expanded significantly from the Mediterranean Basin into the New World over the last two decades. In some cases, cultivars of European origin have been introduced at a large commercial scale with little previous evaluation of potential productivity. The objective of this study was to evaluate whether a temperature-driven simulation model developed in the Mediterranean Basin to predict normal flowering occurrence and flowering date using cultivar-specific thermal requirements was suitable for the low latitude areas of Northwest Argentina. The model was validated at eight sites over several years and a wide elevation range (350–1200 m above mean sea level) for three cultivars (‘Arbequina’, ‘Frantoio’, ‘Leccino’) with potentially different chilling requirements. In ‘Arbequina’, normal flowering was observed at almost all sites and in all years, while normal flowering events in ‘Frantoio’ and ‘Leccino’ were uncommon. The model successfully predicted if flowering would be normal in 92% and 83% of the cases in ‘Arbequina’ and ‘Frantoio’, respectively, but was somewhat less successful in ‘Leccino’ (61%). When flowering occurred, the predicted flowering date was within ± 7 days of the observed date in 71% of the cases. Overall, the model results indicate that cultivar-specific simulation models may be used as an approximate tool to predict whether individual cultivars will be successful in new growing areas. In Northwest Argentina, the model could be used to identify cultivars to replace ‘Frantoio’ and ‘Leccino’ and to simulate global warming scenarios.

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“…Phenological changes had been observed in different ecological systems throughout the world, including America (Bradley et al 1999), China (Chen et al 2005), Germany (Menzel et al 2001;Chmielewski et al 2004;Estrella et al 2007;Siebert and Ewert 2012), UK (Sparks et al 2000), Southern Spain (García-Mozo et al 2010), Lithuania, and Latvia (Romanovskaja et al 2009). The observed ecosystems extended from natural vegetation (e.g., forest and grass) (Badeck et al 2004;Morin et al 2010) to crop systems (e.g., soybean, wheat, and rice) (Setiyono et al 2007;Tao et al 2012;.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamic variability of the heading–flowering stages of single rice in China based on field observations and NDVI estimations

et al. 2014

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Although many studies have indicated the consistent impact of warming on the natural ecosystem (e.g., an early flowering and prolonged growing period), our knowledge of the impacts on agricultural systems is still poorly understood. In this study, spatiotemporal variability of the heading-flowering stages of single rice was detected and compared at three different scales using field-based methods (FBMs) and satellite-based methods (SBMs). The headingflowering stages from 2000 to 2009 with a spatial resolution of 1 km were extracted from the SPOT/VGT NDVI time series data using the Savizky-Golay filtering method in the areas in China dominated by single rice of Northeast China (NE), the middle-lower Yangtze River Valley (YZ), the Sichuan Basin (SC), and the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau (YG). We found that approximately 52.6 and 76.3 % of the estimated heading-flowering stages by a SBM were within ±5 and ±10 days estimation error (a root mean square error (RMSE) of 8.76 days) when compared with those determined by a FBM. Both the FBM data and the SBM data had indicated a similar spatial pattern, with the earliest annual average heading-flowering stages in SC, followed by YG, NE, and YZ, which were inconsistent with the patterns reported in natural ecosystems. Moreover, diverse temporal trends were also detected in the four regions due to different climate conditions and agronomic factors such as cultivar shifts. Nevertheless, there were no significant differences (p>0.05) between the FBM and the SBM in both the regional average value of the phenological stages and the trends, implying the consistency and rationality of the SBM at three scales.

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Phenological trends in southern Spain: A response to climate change

Cited by 114 publications

References 23 publications

Impacts of climate projections on water balance and implications on olive crop in Minas Gerais

Impacts of climate projections on water balance and implications on olive crop in Minas Gerais

Evaluation of olive flowering at low latitude sites in Argentina using a chilling requirement model

Dynamic variability of the heading–flowering stages of single rice in China based on field observations and NDVI estimations

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