Phenology and pest status of Agrotis segetum in a changing climate

Esbjerg, P.; Sigsgaard, Lene

doi:10.1016/j.cropro.2014.04.003

Cited by 28 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…outbreaks (e.g., Esbjerg and Sigsgaard, 2014). Similar considerations apply for national and global-scale 488…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 95%

Global Gridded Crop Model evaluation: benchmarking, skills, deficiencies and implications

Müller¹,

Elliott²,

Chryssanthacopoulos³

et al. 2016

Preprint

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Abstract. Crop models are increasingly used to simulate crop yields at the global scale, but there so far is no general framework on how to assess model performance. We here evaluate the simulation results of 14 global gridded crop modeling groups that have contributed historic crop yield simulations for maize, wheat, rice and soybean to the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP). Simulation results are compared to reference data at global, national and grid cell scales and we evaluate model performance with respect to time series correlation, spatial correlation and mean bias. We find that GGCMs show mixed skill in reproducing time-series correlations or spatial patterns at the different spatial scales. Generally, maize, wheat and soybean simulations of many GGCMs are capable of reproducing larger parts of observed temporal variability (time series correlation coefficients (r) of up to 0.888 for maize, 0.673 for wheat and 0.643 for soybean at the global scale) but rice yield variability cannot be well reproduced by most models. Yield variability can be well reproduced for most major producer countries by many GGCMS and for all countries by at least some. A comparison with gridded yield data and a statistical analysis of the effects of weather variability on yield variability shows that the ensemble of GGCMs can explain more of the yield variability than an ensemble of regression models for maize and soybean, but not for wheat and rice. We identify future research needs in global gridded crop modeling and for all individual crop modeling groups. In the absence of a purely observation-based benchmark for model evaluation, we propose that the best performing crop model per crop and region establishes the benchmark for all others, and modelers are encouraged to investigate how crop model performance can be increased. We make our evaluation system accessible to all crop modelers so that also other modeling groups can test their model performance against the reference data and the GGCMI benchmark.

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“…outbreaks (e.g., Esbjerg and Sigsgaard, 2014). Similar considerations apply for national and global-scale 488…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 95%

Global Gridded Crop Model evaluation: benchmarking, skills, deficiencies and implications

Müller¹,

Elliott²,

Chryssanthacopoulos³

et al. 2016

Preprint

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“…A full description of the A. segetum regional sampling programme is given elsewhere (Esbjerg & Sigsgaard, ). To summarize: sex pheromone traps were operated at sites in Denmark each summer yielding a total number of captured adult males in the first generation.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A full description of the A. segetum regional sampling programme is given elsewhere (Esbjerg & Sigsgaard, 2014). To summarize: sex pheromone The analytical method used for T. paludosa (Blackshaw & Petrovskii, 2007) was applied to the A. segetum sex pheromone trap counts.…”

Section: Agrotis Segetum Dynamicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Statistical indicators for insects caught in the development trap

Blackshaw¹,

Esbjerg

2017

J Applied Entomology

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The effects of climate change on insect phenologies are of current interest, but little attention has been given to the potential driver for population decline of increased mortality arising from the failure to reach a viable overwintering stage. We use numerical simulation modelling to show that increased mortality from a partial second generation results in the weakening of density dependence, whereas increasing mortality within the first generation does not. These general results are then compared with annual trap count data for the moth Agrotis segetum (Denis and Schiffermüller) in Denmark, a species which is in decline there because a partial second generation fails to survive the winter. Results from the moth data are consistent with those from the simulations, and we conclude that the development trap phenomenon can be detected by the application of simple statistical tests to time‐series data.

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“…We consequently hypothesise that the rate of juvenile mortality during hibernation would be higher after wet spring conditions. Then, although the influence of precipitation on insects has been overlooked, a recent study by Esbjerg and Sigsgaard (2014) demonstrated the important impacts of rain on the phenology of the moth species Agrotis segetum: the number of precipitation days in July was strongly correlated with the mortality of 1st and 2nd instar larvae with a lag effect of one year, and soil moisture was probably the principal cause of mortality in the larvae. Given that moths are one of the most important food items of R. ferrumequinum (Jones 1990), we hypothesise that when heavy spring rainfall occurs, low prey availability during the following year would have a strong negative influence on the colony growth (but see Bontadina et al 2008 who suggest that amount/connectivity of surrounding habitat is more important than food availability for a Rhinolophus species).…”

Section: Landscape Characteristics Affect Colony Size At Different Spmentioning

confidence: 99%

Factors driving population recovery of the greater horseshoe bat (Rhinolophus ferrumequinum) in the UK: implications for conservation

et al. 2017

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Although populations of many bat species appear to be recovering in some European countries, the extrinsic and intrinsic factors driving these increases have not yet been assessed. Disentangling the benefits of conservation management from other factors such as climate change is a crucial step for improving evidence-based conservation strategies. We used the greater horseshoe bat (Rhinolophus ferrumequinum) as a case study for understanding the recovery of bat populations, as its north-western populations have increased substantially over the past two decades following severe population declines. Using summer roost count data from the UK National Bat Monitoring Programme spanning an 18 year period from 1997 to 2014, we investigated the effects of (i) landscape characteristics associated with the implementation of the agri-environment schemes on colony trends and size, and (ii) meteorological variables on annual colony growth rate. We also assessed the relationship between colony size and colony growth to investigate intrinsic factors such as an Allee effect. Our results indicated that colony size was positively related to a range of landscape features (e.g. amount of broadleaf woodland and grassland, and density of linear features) surrounding the roost, while the amount of artificial light at night had a significant negative effect. Spring temperatures and precipitation (the latter with a lag of one year) were associated with annual colony growth. We also identified a negative density-dependence effect within colonies. Though the conservation of essential landscape elements may have contributed to population increases in the long-term, we conclude that recent population recovery has also been driven by climate Communicated by Dirk Sven Schmeller.Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s10531-017-1320-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. change. Finally we recommend that the conservation of photophobic bat species such as R. ferrumequinum should focus on both the improvement of foraging/commuting habitats and the creation of dark areas.

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Phenology and pest status of Agrotis segetum in a changing climate

Cited by 28 publications

References 20 publications

Global Gridded Crop Model evaluation: benchmarking, skills, deficiencies and implications

Global Gridded Crop Model evaluation: benchmarking, skills, deficiencies and implications

Statistical indicators for insects caught in the development trap

Factors driving population recovery of the greater horseshoe bat (Rhinolophus ferrumequinum) in the UK: implications for conservation

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