Summary
1.Behaviour-based models of animal population dynamics provide ecologists with a powerful tool for predicting the response of such populations to both natural and human-induced environmental changes. 2. We developed this approach by addressing two outstanding issues in the application of such models: the need to adopt a large-scale spatially explicit approach, and the need to consider the year-round dynamics of animal populations. 3. Spatially explicit, year-round, behaviour-based models of two populations of arctic-breeding geese, the Svalbard population of the barnacle goose Branta leucopsis and the dark-bellied race of the brent goose Branta bernicla, were developed. Both populations have been the subject of serious conservation concern and are currently a source of increasing con¯ict with agricultural interests. 4. There was generally good agreement between empirically derived and modelgenerated density-dependent functions, and of seasonal patterns of the distribution and movement of populations within and between sites, and of energy reserve levels within a population. 5. Sensitivity analyses, however, highlighted the importance of accurate parameter estimation with respect to the predictions of such models, and the potential¯aws in the predictions of existing models that have not adopted a spatially explicit approach when dealing with wide-ranging migratory populations. 6. The eect of the removal of a given area of habitat on both populations was predicted to vary depending upon the spatial con®guration of the change. This further emphasizes the need for a spatially explicit approach. 7. Both barnacle goose and brent goose populations were predicted to decline following habitat loss in their winter or spring-staging sites. Simulations suggested that barnacle geese might be less vulnerable to winter habitat loss than brent geese. This re¯ected the relative strengths of the density-dependence of productivity and winter mortality in the two models and provided a clear illustration of the need for a year-round approach to animal population dynamics. 8. We believe that these models, and this approach to understanding the population dynamics of long-distance migrants, will be bene®cial in attempting to answer the increasingly urgent and frequent requests to predict the response of such populations to environmental change.