Physical and policy pathways to net‐zero emissions industry

Abstract

Several recent studies have identified emerging and near-commercial process and technological options to transition heavy industry to global net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by mid-century, as required by the Paris Agreement. To reduce industrial emissions with sufficient speed to meet the Paris goals, this review article argues for the rapid formation of regional and sectoral transition plans, implemented through comprehensive policy packages. These policy packages, which will differ by country, sector, and level of development, must reflect regional capacities, politics, resources, and other key circumstances, and be informed and accepted by the stakeholders who must implement the transition. These packages will likely include a mix of the following mutually reinforcing strategies: reducing and substituting the demand for GHG intense materials (i.e., material efficiency) while raising the quantity and quality of recycling through intentional design and regulation; removal of energy subsidies combined with carbon pricing with competitiveness protection; research and development support for decarbonized production technologies followed by lead markets and subsidized prices during early stage commercialization; sunset policies for older high carbon facilities; electricity, hydrogen and carbon capture, and storage infrastructure planning and support; and finally, supporting institutions, including for a "just workforce & community transition" and monitoring and adjustment of policy effectiveness. Given the paucity of industrial decarbonization perspectives available for in-transition and lessdeveloped countries, the review finishes with a discussion of priorities and responsibilities for developed, in-transition and less developed countries.

Net-zero Deep Decarbonization Pathways in Latin America: Challenges and Opportunities

“…It has been noted in a growing literature that there is a class of "hard (er) to abate" sectors, including freight transport, aviation, steel, cement, chemicals and other heavy industry [8,9,23,24]. These results were repeated in this project as remaining emissions in the country DDPs.…”

“…The core strategies of net-zero deep decarbonization are well known: reduce non-welfare enhancing demand, improve energy and material efficiency, decarbonize energy carriers and material inputs and switch end uses to them, and direct GHG reductions through land use and technical negative emissions processes [5][6][7][8][9][10]. But the challenge is to define country-driven strategies implementing these broad transformations, in a way consistent with national circumstances.…”

Modelling net-zero emissions energy systems requires a change in approach

“…A major focus needs to be on hard-to-mitigate sectors, including international transport and industry, which are often modelled at an aggregated level. Options to decarbonize energy-intensive sectors also need to be included, such as lower clinker ratio cements, the use of lower GHG hydrogen for fertilizer and general chemicals production, and zero carbon steel production through the use of hydrogen in the direct reduction process combined with the electric arc furnace process (Bataille, 2019). New fuel pathways should also be represented, including the 'circular carbon economy', where hydrogen production and captured CO2 are used to produce synthetic fuels for the transport sector via processes including Fischer Tropsch, methanation and methanol synthesis (Energy Transitions Commission, 2018).…”

“…Examples include new pathways for synthetic fuels (e.g. synthetic kerosene for aviation), and emerging low carbon industrial processes in iron and steel, and cement production (Bataille, 2019). At the same time, options that were considered feasible under an 80% or 90% reduction target may now be redundant e.g.…”

Roadmap for Decarbonization of the Building and Construction Industry—A Supply Chain Analysis Including Primary Production of Steel and Cement

“…It is of course also important to continue to find ways to sharpen existing climate policies, such as the EU-ETS and renewable policies, most important being to make them as long term as possible [35]. There is no guarantee that investments in the development and implementation of hydrogen direction reduction in the steel industry, CCS in the cement industry, nor other low-carbon technologies for industrial applications will pay off [172,173]. However, choosing not to, or failing to act within the next few years, to create the economic, organizational, and infrastructural conditions that could facilitate a shift towards low-CO 2 production and practices will severely compromise the chances of a successful decarbonization of the steel and cement-industries, as well as the supply chains for buildings and transport infrastructure, up to the year 2045.…”