Rationale: The role of inspiratory effort still has to be determined as a potential predictor of noninvasive mechanical ventilation (NIV) failure in acute hypoxic de novo respiratory failure. Objectives: To explore the hypothesis that inspiratory effort might be a major determinant of NIV failure in these patients. Methods: Thirty consecutive patients with acute hypoxic de novo respiratory failure admitted to a single center and candidates for a 24-hour NIV trial were enrolled. Clinical features, tidal change in esophageal pressure (DPes), tidal change in dynamic transpulmonary pressure (DPL), expiratory VT, and respiratory rate were recorded on admission and 2-4 to 12-24 hours after NIV start and were tested for correlation with outcomes. Measurements and Main Results: DPes and DPes/DPL ratio were significantly lower 2 hours after NIV start in patients who successfully completed the NIV trial (n = 18) compared with those who needed endotracheal intubation (n = 12) (median [interquartile range], 11 [8-15] cm H 2 O vs. 31.5 [30-36] cm H 2 O; P , 0.0001), whereas other variables differed later. DPes was not related to other predictors of NIV failure at baseline. NIV-induced reduction in DPes of 10 cm H 2 O or more after 2 hours of treatment was strongly associated with avoidance of intubation and represented the most accurate predictor of treatment success (odds ratio, 15; 95% confidence interval, 2.8-110; P = 0.001 and area under the curve, 0.97; 95% confidence interval, 0.91-1; P , 0.0001). Conclusions: The magnitude of inspiratory effort relief as assessed by DPes variation within the first 2 hours of NIV was an early and accurate predictor of NIV outcome at 24 hours. Clinical trial registered with www.clinicaltrials.gov (NCT 03826797).