Pitfall to Peace: FARC’s Political Participation and Mass Support for Peace Talks in Colombia

Abstract

Transforming armed groups into legitimate political actors is often considered an ideal way to settle armed internal conflicts. In democracies, the efficacy of such approaches depends on the public legitimacy that the citizenry grants them. How does the prospect of Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia’s (FARC’s) political participation influence citizens’ support for the peace process? This study addresses this question by triangulating evidence from three separate studies: (1) regression analysis using face-to-face nationally representative survey data, as well as (2) a vignette experiment and (3) a conjoint analysis, both conducted online with national samples of Colombians. Though methodologically distinct, each analysis converges on a singular conclusion: mass support for the integration of ex-FARC guerrillas into democratic politics damaged support for negotiated peace, often to similar or greater degrees than mass support for transitional justice mechanisms. We suspect this reflects citizens’ fear of undermining democratic representation, the legitimacy of democratic institutions, and electoral integrity.

Civil War Settlements, Perceived Agreement Fairness, and Trust in Political Authorities: Investigating the Influence of Power Sharing on Public Opinion in Divided Societies

“…Recent research thus has sought to complement this top-down view of war-ending bargains with a micro-level perspective that accounts for the preferences and roles of civilians. Among other questions, scholars have sought to investigate the effects that different aspects of peace agreements have on individuals' support for the peace (see, for example, Carlin, McCoy, and Subotic 2016;Matanock and Garbiras-Díaz 2018;Tellez 2019).…”