Plane inclinations: A critique of hypothesis and model choice in Barbi et al

Newman, Saul Justin

doi:10.1371/journal.pbio.3000048

Cited by 16 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 4 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Newman demonstrates that rare cases of age misreporting among people in their eighties eventually result in accumulation of false claims at extreme old ages and produce spurious mortality deceleration [25,26]. Regardless of possible limitations of his simulation model (as Wachter [27] rightfully pointed to significant age exaggeration in Newman’s model), this study is important because it brings our attention to the fact that even rare cases of age misreporting are able to produce spurious mortality deceleration.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Late-life mortality is underestimated because of data errors

Gavrilov

Gavrilova

2019

PLoS Biol

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Knowledge of true mortality trajectory at extreme old ages is important for biologists who test their theories of aging with demographic data. Studies using both simulation and direct age validation found that longevity records for ages 105 years and older are often incorrect and may lead to spurious mortality deceleration and mortality plateau. After age 105 years, longevity claims should be considered as extraordinary claims that require extraordinary evidence. Traditional methods of data cleaning and data quality control are just not sufficient. New, more strict methodologies of data quality control need to be developed and tested. Before this happens, all mortality estimates for ages above 105 years should be treated with caution.

show abstract

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Late-life mortality is underestimated because of data errors

Gavrilov

Gavrilova

2019

PLoS Biol

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Newman et al 2018). For instance, there was a much more significant and persistent signature of extra-tropical influence in the 2015/16 El Niño, with warm SST anomalies extending from the north-eastern Pacific to the Central Pacific associated with the North Pacific Meridional Mode, than in the 1982/83 and 1997/98 events(Santoso et al 2017;Paek et al 2017).Unlike the previous two extremes, the large amplitude of the 2015/16 El Niño was built upon an already abnormally warm tropical Pacific from 2014, rather than relying solely on a vigorous Bjerknes feedback (Abellán et al 2017).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamics and Predictability of El Niño–Southern Oscillation: An Australian Perspective on Progress and Challenges

Santoso

Hendon

Watkins

et al. 2019

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

El Niño and La Niña, the warm and cold phases of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), cause significant year-to-year disruptions in global climate, including in the atmosphere, oceans, and cryosphere. Australia is one of the countries where its climate, including droughts and flooding rains, is highly sensitive to the temporal and spatial variations of ENSO. The dramatic impacts of ENSO on the environment, society, health, and economies worldwide make the application of reliable ENSO predictions a powerful way to manage risks and resources. An improved understanding of ENSO dynamics in a changing climate has the potential to lead to more accurate and reliable ENSO predictions by facilitating improved forecast systems. This motivated an Australian national workshop on ENSO dynamics and prediction that was held in Sydney, Australia, in November 2017. This workshop followed the aftermath of the 2015/16 extreme El Niño, which exhibited different characteristics to previous extreme El Niños and whose early evolution since 2014 was challenging to predict. This essay summarizes the collective workshop perspective on recent progress and challenges in understanding ENSO dynamics and predictability and improving forecast systems. While this essay discusses key issues from an Australian perspective, many of the same issues are important for other ENSO-affected countries and for the international ENSO research community.

show abstract

“…This paper is a response to the comment by Saul Newman [1], which asserts that “the mortality plateau in Barbi and colleagues [2] can be generated by low-frequency randomly distributed age misreporting errors.”…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%