PLANNING FOR DROUGHT: MOVING FROM CRISIS TO RISK MANAGEMENT¹

Abstract

Severe drought is a recurring problem for the United States, as illustrated by widespread economic, social, and environmental impacts. Recent drought episodes and the widespread drought conditions in 1996, 1998, and 1999 emphasized this vulnerability and the need for a more proactive, risk management approach to drought management that would place greater emphasis on preparedness planning and mitigation actions. Drought planning has become a principal tool of states and other levels of government to improve their response to droughts. For example, since 1982, the number of states with drought plans has increased from 3 to 29. Many local governments have also adopted drought or water shortage plans. Unfortunately, most state drought plans were established during the 1980s and early 1990s and emphasize emergency response or crisis management rather than risk management. This paper presents a substantive revision of a 10-step drought planning process that has been applied widely in the United States and elsewhere. The revised planning process places more weight on risk assessment and the development and implementation of mitigation actions and programs. The goal of this paper is to encourage states to adopt this planning process in the revision of existing drought plans or, for states without plans, in the development of new plans.

Seasonal streamflow forecasting by conditioning climatology with precipitation indices

“…Numerical prediction is valuable to proactively manage risks in areas such as hydropower, drinking water production and drought preparedness (Wilhite et al, 2000). Regardless of the application, probabilistic forecasts are preferred over deterministic ones to convey uncertainties (Krzysztofowicz, 2001;Ramos et al, 2013).…”

“…Research has shown that the relative role of each source of predictability mainly depends on the "inertia" or "memory" of the studied basin, the forecast season and the forecast lead time (Wood and Lettenmaier, 2008;Shukla et al, 2013;Yossef et al, 2013;Wood et al, 2016). Yossef et al (2013) showed that in western Europe, from July to October, streamflow forecasts are more dependent on meteorolog-ical forcing than they are on initial conditions, even 1 month ahead.…”

Observed drought and wetness trends in Europe: an update

“…On the contrary, we should take a proactive approach to dealing with drought, anticipating the occurrence of the natural phenomenon and planning measures for minimizing its negative effects (Wilhite et al, 2000). However, making the transition from crisis to risk management is difficult because little has been done to understand and address the risks associated with drought, and to identify the factors that influence the vulnerability of a region to dry spells (Wilhite, 2002).…”

Drought triggers and declarations: science and policy considerations for drought risk management

“…US drought risk management focuses on the need for improved proactive strategies that can be implemented before an event occurs to reduce impacts during future droughts and increase the timeliness and effectiveness of response (Wilhite et al 2000a). In this context, drought monitoring and early warning is one component of a drought risk management approach.…”