Planning Hospital Needs for Ventilators and Respiratory Therapists in the COVID-19 Crisis

Abstract

Ideally, no one would have to wait for access to a life-saving device, such as a ventilator. But during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) crisis, many hospitals have run short of ventilators-as well as respiratory therapists (RTs) who are trained to operate them-while other facilities scramble to prepare for the coming demand surge. Any patient who needs a ventilator might not be able to get one, imperiling their survival. Mathematically, the delay that a patient may experience depends on the number of ventilators at the hospital, the number of patients who need them, and the average time that patients spend on them. COVID-19 increases the arrival rate of ventilator patients at hospitals, and these patients have longer lengths of stay, resulting in the sharp rise in demand for ventilators. Hospitals need to estimate how many ventilators they will need to respond to this crisis, accounting for increased, uncertain patient arrival rates and lengths of stay. At the same time, regional coordinators want to know which hospitals have the greatest need for the next spare ventilator or available capacity for the next ventilator patient.

Analysis of Coronavirus Patients Flow in Hospitals: An Application of Queuing Theory

“…The shortage that is caused by COVID-19 patients to the number of available ventilator machines and the respiratory therapists who operate these machines is discussed in [21]. By using the famous Erlang C queuing model [22], authors calculated the probability of a new patient waiting for a free ventilator, and the desired number of ventilators to be available to achieve a specific acceptable waiting time.…”

Rapid deployment of an emergency department-intensive care unit for the COVID-19 pandemic

“…The initial goal for ED management was to accommodate every possible and confirmed COVID-19 patient (or family) in a NP room from arrival to discharge or admission. [6][7][8] However, increased daily ED volume of suspected or confirmed COVID-19 cases-a rise of 86% by week 2 of the pandemic-led to a shortage of isolation rooms. This was further exacerbated by the increasing frequency of boarding by admitted ED patients awaiting inpatient bed availability in ward isolation rooms and units.…”

Projected impact of COVID-19 mitigation strategies on hospital services in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area

“…Model-based predictions can serve as a valuable tool for health authorities and policy makers to construct an informed response to the pandemic [4]. Many models have now been developed, offering a wide range of predictions which include hospital beds, intensive care unit (ICU) capacity, ventilators, physician and other staff needs, and PPE consumption [21][22][23]. The input variables differ among the various models and include factors such as local hospital admission rates, case severity, clinical care pathways, population age distribution, asymptomatic transmission rate, and unreported death rates [21,24,25].…”