Planning Victoria's Energy Transition using n Bottom Line Analysis

Abstract

To achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, Australia must decarbonise the energy sector and other sectors. The 'energy transition' is driven by policy-led construction of renewable infrastructure and regulation changes. However, no holistic analysis of the path forward currently exists. This report aims to develop a clear plan for Victoria's energy transition by evaluating three scenarios. A Business as Usual (BAU) scenario that aims to emulate Victoria's planned trajectory is compared against two alternative solutions, both of which aim to emulate Victoria's planned trajectory is analysed against two alternative solutions that aim for complete renewable energy generation by 2030. Alternative 1 (ALT1) focuses on Victoria being reliant on imported interstate renewable energy, while Alternative 2 (ALT2) involves Victoria becoming self-sufficient through renewable generation. Each of the three scenarios is compared across four bottom lines: technical performance, social, economic, and environmental. Interviews among energy experts revealed that economic and social metrics were considered most important. Application of the n-bottom line (nBL) assessment framework delivers a result that finds ALT2 and ALT1 tied as the preferred solution. Hence, the construction of renewable infrastructure in Victoria and increased interstate transmission capacity should be built. Further research could include a deeper understanding of the embodied carbon in infrastructure built for the energy transition.