This article shows a socio-technical evaluation of the Australian case which has international implications for energy policy and regulation. Australia is one of few places globally that have faced domestic PV (photovoltaic system) adoption of above 50% of feeder connections. This leads to grid issues and is an emerging issue globally. Grid issues include over-voltage, thermal overload, frequency instability and voltage instability. This paper offers a policy process to regulate PV. This research extends earlier econometric modelling of Australian PV adoption data and extends it to focus on PV regulation in low voltage grids. This paper explores five policy options to help regulate PV in low voltage grids: the role of distribution businesses, inverter regulation, PV export limits, cost reflective pricing, and storage. Policy complexity comes from the need to incorporate many stakeholder perspectives, and this research contributes to policy clarity by seeking a consensus.

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Australian household PVadoption rates are the highest in the world and this is causing a rise in technical problems and the cost of the distribution system. This paper offers a predictive model of household PV purchases in Australia and this could be used in policy to better manage PV uptake patterns. The analysis used 1.6 million domestic PV installation decisions over 11 years from 2006 to 2017 and is statistically significant. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modelling was used to reduce non-stationarity in the data and Granger Causal modelling showed the most effective policy levers are price, subsidy, business confidence and PV feed-in tariffs. This analysis develops a model of Australian PV adoption and increases understanding of consumer roles in the future electricity system. This is compared to other similar models in the literature. The key contribution is that the scale of the model creates a temporal prediction that is not in other literature. The second contribution is that the model may apply to other household energy decisions. This was measured by comparing Australian PV adoption to solar hot water adoption.

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To achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, Australia must decarbonise the energy sector and other sectors. The 'energy transition' is driven by policy-led construction of renewable infrastructure and regulation changes. However, no holistic analysis of the path forward currently exists. This report aims to develop a clear plan for Victoria's energy transition by evaluating three scenarios. A Business as Usual (BAU) scenario that aims to emulate Victoria's planned trajectory is compared against two alternative solutions, both of which aim to emulate Victoria's planned trajectory is analysed against two alternative solutions that aim for complete renewable energy generation by 2030. Alternative 1 (ALT1) focuses on Victoria being reliant on imported interstate renewable energy, while Alternative 2 (ALT2) involves Victoria becoming self-sufficient through renewable generation. Each of the three scenarios is compared across four bottom lines: technical performance, social, economic, and environmental. Interviews among energy experts revealed that economic and social metrics were considered most important. Application of the n-bottom line (nBL) assessment framework delivers a result that finds ALT2 and ALT1 tied as the preferred solution. Hence, the construction of renewable infrastructure in Victoria and increased interstate transmission capacity should be built. Further research could include a deeper understanding of the embodied carbon in infrastructure built for the energy transition.