Plant Species’ Capacity for Range Shifts at the Habitat and Geographic Scales: A Trade-Off-Based Framework

Abstract

Climate change is causing rapid shifts in the abiotic and biotic environmental conditions experienced by plant populations, but we lack generalizable frameworks for predicting the consequences for species. These changes may cause individuals to become poorly matched to their environments, potentially inducing shifts in the distributions of populations and altering species’ habitat and geographic ranges. We present a trade-off-based framework for understanding and predicting whether plant species may undergo range shifts, based on ecological strategies defined by functional trait variation. We define a species’ capacity for undergoing range shifts as the product of its colonization ability and the ability to express a phenotype well-suited to the environment across life stages (phenotype–environment matching), which are both strongly influenced by a species’ ecological strategy and unavoidable trade-offs in function. While numerous strategies may be successful in an environment, severe phenotype–environment mismatches result in habitat filtering: propagules reach a site but cannot establish there. Operating within individuals and populations, these processes will affect species’ habitat ranges at small scales, and aggregated across populations, will determine whether species track climatic changes and undergo geographic range shifts. This trade-off-based framework can provide a conceptual basis for species distribution models that are generalizable across plant species, aiding in the prediction of shifts in plant species’ ranges in response to climate change.

Potentially differential impacts on niche overlap between Chinese endangered Zelkova schneideriana and its associated tree species under climate change

“…A majority of endangered tree species often occur in separate natural forests in the form of population. Previous researches have demonstrated that climate change may disrupt the existing species interactions because different species responds distinctively to climate change in phenological rhythm, physiological ecology, extinction risk, and potential distribution (Bellard et al, 2012;Ovaskainen et al, 2013;Vitasse et al, 2021;McNichol and Russo, 2023;Zurell et al, 2023). Therefore, we speculate that for a certain endangered species in different types of forest communities, the dominant tree species may have different responses to climate change.…”

Climate‐driven shifts in the diversity of plants in the Neotropical seasonally dry forest: Evaluating the effectiveness of protected areas

“…Therefore, it is critical to understand how GCC will impact different taxa in this biome (see Siyum, 2020). Empirical evidence and many model projections indicate that the populations of several taxa in the NSDF will hardly thrive under novel climatic conditions, and some will be condemned to local extinction (Hof et al., 2011; McNichol & Russo, 2023), most likely associated with relatively low tolerance to drought. In contrast, the colonization of new areas by species favored by the novel climatic conditions, including invasive and local species such as cacti, is also expected (Barreto Cavalcante & Praciano Sampaio, 2022; González‐M et al., 2019, 2021).…”

Topography‐driven microclimate gradients shape forest structure, diversity, and composition in a temperate refugial forest

“…This is particularly true for forests, as they are critical providers of ecosystem services and regulators of climate from local to global scales (Anderson‐Teixeira et al., 2013 ; FAO & UNEP, 2020 ; Lawrence & Vandecar, 2015 ). Changes in climate regimes at large spatial scales are anticipated to shift the distribution of suitable environments for forests (Davis & Shaw, 2001 ; Hampe & Jump, 2011 ), likely causing some plant populations within a species' geographic range to become poorly matched to local conditions (McNichol & Russo, 2023 ). However, many forest plant species' ranges are projected to shift to higher latitudes or altitudes to track their climatic niche (Feeley et al., 2011 ; Skov & Svenning, 2004 ; Vellend et al., 2021 ).…”