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Globally, forests provide important ecosystem services, but anthropogenic change may shift the boundaries of forested biomes, because small-scale environmental changes govern biome transitions. This is especially true in semi-arid forests, where minor topographic and microclimatic changes influence forest functioning and transitions to open biomes such as grasslands. However, we lack quantitative descriptions of topographically driven microclimate variation and how it shapes forest structure, diversity, and composition in these transition zones.Leveraging a 20.2-ha forest inventory plot (Niobrara plot) at a semi-arid forest-grassland transition zone in the Niobrara River valley (Nebraska, USA), we paired data on abundances and distributions of seedlings, saplings, and adults of woody species with topographic and microclimate data to test the hypothesis that if topographic variation causes variation in microclimate that affects forest function, then forest structure, diversity, and composition should vary significantly with topography and microclimate.Microclimatic variation within the Niobrara plot strongly corresponded with topography, creating a sharp water availability and exposure gradient from the river floodplain to the forest-grassland transition zone. The magnitude of microclimate variation corresponded to that of regional macroclimate variation. Mean soil moisture was 10.2% lower along the higher-elevation transition zone than in the canyon bottoms, corresponding to variation across approximately 2.5 degrees of longitude. Mean air temperature increased by 2.2 °C from the canyon bottoms to upper canyon, corresponding to variation across approximately 3 degrees of latitude.Forest structure, diversity, and composition correlated strongly with topographic and microclimatic gradients. More complex forest structure and higher species richness of adults and saplings occurred in moister, less exposed habitats with steeper slopes and lower elevations, whereas seedling stem density and richness were higher in higher-light, moister habitats at lower elevations. Species occupied well-defined topographic niches, promoting high beta diversity along topographic and microclimatic gradients and high species turnover from the floodplain to the transition zone.Synthesis: Microclimatic and topographic variation drive patterns of structure, diversity, and composition in the forests at this forest-grassland transition zone. As the macroclimate becomes warmer and drier, topographically mediated microclimatic refuges supporting diverse, structurally complex forested ecosystems may shrink in semi-arid regions.

Several species of aggressive bark beetle in the genus Dendroctonus (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) undergo large fluctuations in population density with distinct outbreak and non-outbreak phases. We investigated attributes we hypothesized as subject to density-dependent variation (in particular, those likely to express phenotypic plasticity) in the southern pine beetle (SPB), Dendroctonus frontalis, as possible indicators of population fluctuations. These traits were morphology (body size and hindwing shape) and the sex ratio of trap-captured, dispersing SPB populations. We compared attributes of beetles from locations that ranged from having zero to high numbers (>1500) of SPB infestations (spots) at the county level for two summers. Southern pine beetle were obtained from six states in the southeastern USA and had been collected during a springtime, region-wide trapping survey used for forecasting outbreaks annually. Although we detected an expected but weak sexual dimorphism in both size and shape-related traits, no morphological differences were found between SPB collected from traps in counties with low or high densities of spots (≤10 or >10 per county, respectively). We found no relationship between numbers of SPB spots per county and trapped sex ratios in 2016, but we observed a strong trend in 2017, with about three times higher proportions of females trapped in counties with low compared with high numbers of spots. This implies that one or more known or possible factors influencing trapped sex ratios (e.g., disparities between the sexes in their responses to semiochemicals or in their propensity to disperse) can be densitydependent. Including trap-captured sex ratios in prediction models may improve current forecasting of SPB outbreaks in the southeastern USA, informing more timely and effective management of one of the most economically and ecologically important beetle species of this region.

Climate change is causing rapid shifts in the abiotic and biotic environmental conditions experienced by plant populations, but we lack generalizable frameworks for predicting the consequences for species. These changes may cause individuals to become poorly matched to their environments, potentially inducing shifts in the distributions of populations and altering species’ habitat and geographic ranges. We present a trade-off-based framework for understanding and predicting whether plant species may undergo range shifts, based on ecological strategies defined by functional trait variation. We define a species’ capacity for undergoing range shifts as the product of its colonization ability and the ability to express a phenotype well-suited to the environment across life stages (phenotype–environment matching), which are both strongly influenced by a species’ ecological strategy and unavoidable trade-offs in function. While numerous strategies may be successful in an environment, severe phenotype–environment mismatches result in habitat filtering: propagules reach a site but cannot establish there. Operating within individuals and populations, these processes will affect species’ habitat ranges at small scales, and aggregated across populations, will determine whether species track climatic changes and undergo geographic range shifts. This trade-off-based framework can provide a conceptual basis for species distribution models that are generalizable across plant species, aiding in the prediction of shifts in plant species’ ranges in response to climate change.