2016
DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2015-010247
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Plea for routinely presenting prediction intervals in meta-analysis

Abstract: ObjectivesEvaluating the variation in the strength of the effect across studies is a key feature of meta-analyses. This variability is reflected by measures like τ2 or I2, but their clinical interpretation is not straightforward. A prediction interval is less complicated: it presents the expected range of true effects in similar studies. We aimed to show the advantages of having the prediction interval routinely reported in meta-analyses.DesignWe show how the prediction interval can help understand the uncerta… Show more

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Cited by 1,346 publications
(1,027 citation statements)
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References 20 publications
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“…Values of I 2 ≥ 25% indicate at least some (25% = low, 50% = moderate, 75% = high) heterogeneity, and thus point to the potential existence of moderator variables. In addition, we report 95% prediction intervals (PI; Borenstein et al, 2009; IntHout et al, 2016) indicating the distribution of true effects around the pooled mean effect. While the 95% CI is a measure for the precision of the mean effect, the 95% PI describes the range of effects that may be expected in future studies.…”
Section: Methodsmentioning
confidence: 78%
“…Values of I 2 ≥ 25% indicate at least some (25% = low, 50% = moderate, 75% = high) heterogeneity, and thus point to the potential existence of moderator variables. In addition, we report 95% prediction intervals (PI; Borenstein et al, 2009; IntHout et al, 2016) indicating the distribution of true effects around the pooled mean effect. While the 95% CI is a measure for the precision of the mean effect, the 95% PI describes the range of effects that may be expected in future studies.…”
Section: Methodsmentioning
confidence: 78%
“…We ran random-effects meta-regression without moderators for each EF separately. Besides reporting on the confidence intervals (CIs) which quantify the precision of an estimated effect, in the results we also report prediction intervals (PIs) which present the expected range of true study effects in similar, new studies (IntHout et al 2016). It can be particularly informative to inspect PIs when there is high heterogeneity between studies included in a meta-analysis (IntHout et al 2016;Partlett and Riley 2017).…”
Section: Meta-regression Proceduresmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…22 The prediction interval was calculated for the primary outcome (stone passage); this interval reflects the expected future benefits of treatment to patients. 23 Based on a priori decisions, we also performed subgroup analyses, stratifying by stone size and location. In some trials, the investigators reported outcomes in patients who had smaller versus larger ureteric stones; we used these size thresholds, ranging from 5 mm to 8 mm, to stratify the results.…”
Section: Data Synthesis and Primary Analysismentioning
confidence: 99%