Global warming is predicted to exaggerate the modern patterns of precipitation minus evaporation, such that the tropics get wetter and the subtropics get drier under what is referred to as the "thermodynamic effect" (Held & Soden, 2006;Seager et al., 2010). Assuming relative humidity remains roughly the same, an assumption that does not hold well over land (Byrne & O'Gorman, 2015), the Clausius-Clapeyron relation predicts 7% more water vapor per degree Celsius of warming. If atmospheric circulation remains unchanged, this thermodynamic effect results in the more efficient transport of moisture from the subtropics into the tropics. However, a slight reduction of large-scale circulation strength, the "dynamic effect," is predicted to partially counteract this thermodynamic effect (Held & Soden, 2006;Seager et al., 2010). Changes to the hydrological cycle predicted by climate models appear dominated by the thermodynamic effect in response to near future warming (Seager et al., 2010) and an abrupt quadrupling of pre-industrial CO 2 levels (Burls & Fedorov, 2017). Results from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) predict global monsoon precipitation will increase by the end of the twenty-first century (Wang et al., 2021). CMIP6 results also predict that regional changes in precipitation over the oceans will be affected by the uneven heating of the ocean surfaces (Xie, 2020).A complementary perspective on how the hydrological cycle might change under global warming can be gained by examining past warm climates, such as the Pliocene. The Pliocene (5.3-2.6 million years ago; Mya) had a similar continental configuration and included times when atmospheric pCO 2 approached modern values (∼400 ppm) (Martínez-Botí et al., 2015). Global mean surface temperature (GMST) estimates from reconstructions of deep ocean temperature indicate an early (∼4-5 Mya) Pliocene GMST about 3°C warmer than pre-industrial, cooling by about 1-2°C in the late (∼3 Mya) Pliocene (Hansen et al., 2013). These GMST estimates make both