Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle Penetration Scenarios

Abstract

SummaryThis report examines the economic drivers, technology constraints, and market potential for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) in the U.S. A PHEV is a hybrid vehicle with batteries that can be recharged by connecting to the grid and an internal combustion engine that can be activated when batteries need recharging. The PHEV offers the range of existing hybrid vehicles, while potentially offering the cost savings and energy benefits of electric vehicles.When considering whether to purchase PHEVs, consumers must weigh the benefits of reduced energy consumption against the cost premium for the PHEV technology. As the cost premium is reduced over time, the PHEV will become more attractive to consumers. There still remain technical questions surrounding the ability of the battery and automotive industries to meet the demand for PHEVs given the current reliance on internal combustion technology and uncertainty associated with the battery technology required to support PHEV development.This report attempts to address some of these questions by presenting and examining a series of PHEV market penetration scenarios. Based on input received from technical experts and industry representatives contacted for this report and data obtained through a literature review, annual market penetration rates for PHEVs were forecast from 2013 through 2045 for three scenarios. The assumptions underlying the three scenarios are highlighted in Table 1. Greene et al. (2004) with PHEV shares of the hybrid market estimated in EPRI and NRDC (2007).-PHEV technology development accelerated as a result of advancements made in hybrid technology. R&D Goals Achieved-Delphi approach asking domain experts for their best judgment, given the following conditions: -$4,000 marginal cost of PHEV technology over existing hybrid technology -40 mile all electric range -100 miles per gallon equivalent -PHEV batteries meet industry standards regarding economic life and safety -Tax incentives, regulations and technical standards favor PHEVs. Supply Constrained-Infusion of PHEVs in marketplace constrained by automotive and battery manufacturers' ability to meet surging demand.-Existing idle off-peak capacity of electric infrastructure able to meet the demand placed on it by 73% of light-duty vehicles in the U.S.Under the Hybrid Technology-Based Assessment scenario, market penetration is forecast to reach 9.7% by 2023 and 11.9% by 2035. Under the R&D Goals Achieved scenario, PHEV iii iv market penetration is forecast to ultimately reach 30%, with 9.9% achieved by 2023 and 27.8% reached by 2035. Finally, the Supply Constrained scenario is forecast to achieve 73% market penetration, with 26.9% reached by 2023, and 68.4% reached by 2035.Barriers to market penetration considered in this report include price, vehicle dependability, battery reliability, battery technology and supply, automotive design, re-design of the manufacturing process, supply chain management, engineering capabilities, raw material constraints, and idle off-peak capacity of electric ...

Life cycle air quality impacts of conventional and alternative light-duty transportation in the United States

“…For the ethanol scenarios, this value corresponds to blending an average of 10% ethanol with gasoline on an energy equivalent basis. For EV scenarios, it corresponds to aggressive but plausible adoption of EVs (36).…”

The investigation of the major factors influencing plug-in electric vehicle driving patterns and charging behaviour

“…Several studies have been undertaken to estimate EV penetration growth rate in different regions and their potential impacts on electricity loads [2][3][4][5][6]. A common finding of these studies was that unmanaged charging demand is likely to coincide with the overall peak load on the grid [7].…”

“…This is reflected in the large divergence of the projections that have been made. The EPRI and Natural Resources Defence Council (NRDC) predicted that PHEV sales would account for 37% of new vehicle purchases by 2020, 52% by 2035 and 62% by 2050 in the USA [3]. The US Department of Energy forecasted that sales of hybrids and PHEVs will reach 50-54% of total sales by 2030 [3].…”

“…The EPRI and Natural Resources Defence Council (NRDC) predicted that PHEV sales would account for 37% of new vehicle purchases by 2020, 52% by 2035 and 62% by 2050 in the USA [3]. The US Department of Energy forecasted that sales of hybrids and PHEVs will reach 50-54% of total sales by 2030 [3]. The Boston Consulting Group and Deutsche Bank, however, have separately forecasted that the electric vehicles in the North American market will make up 1-5% by 2020, based on energy prices and government regulations [24].…”

Research on industrialization of electric vehicles with its demand forecast using exponential smoothing method

“…The EVs is an effective way for reducing energy consumption, especially reducing fossil fuel consumption. Balducci (2008) pointed that a PHEV with a 30-mile range would enable an average of 60% of the motoring public to entirely avoid motor fuel consumption each day based on American travel profiles (Raskin & Shah, 2006). The U.S. Department of Energy compares the EVs cost to commute to drive with that of the traditional car by taking the average distance that a gasoline-powered vehicle can drive on a gallon of gas (28.2 miles for comparable 2012 model year cars), then the test results show that fuelling car with gasoline costs roughly 3 times more than fueling with electricity, on average researched by U.S. Energy (2013b).…”